000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241554 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jul 24 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad 1009 mb low pressure located near 13N128W continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms on the north and west side of the low. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 17N between 127W to 133W. Scatterometer data from overnight depicted fresh winds on the north side of the low. Environmental conditions are generally conducive for development, and this system could become a tropical depression this weekend or early next week before it reaches cooler waters while moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. This disturbance has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. Fresh to strong winds and seas up to 11 ft are likely within 120 nm north of this low pressure area over the next few days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 108W from 03N to 17N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 16N between 105W to 111W. A tropical wave is along 117W from 03N to 16N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 15N between 116W to 123W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 08N78W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 08N84W to 09N102W to 11N114W to a 1009 mb low pressure near 13N128W to 12N137W. Aside from the convection listed in the Special Features and Tropical Waves section, scattered strong convection is from 03N to 12N E of 97W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 136W to 139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure south of the area is supporting fresh to strong northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas estimated to be 7 to 9 ft. Light to gentle winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are evident elsewhere off southern Mexico, with a component of SW swell. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail west of Baja California, between weak high pressure west of the region and lower pressure across northern Mexico, along with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate to locally fresh S winds and slight seas are noted over the northern Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds will continue through Sun with seas to 8 ft. Fresh to moderate winds will continue to pulse in this region through the middle of next week. Moderate to locally fresh winds in the Gulf of California will dimish night and become gentle through early next week. Light to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through mid week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure over the NW Caribbean is helping to funnel fresh to locally strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region with seas to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds prevail just south of the monsoon trough, offshore of Panama and Colombia, with seas to 8 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas of 5 to 7 ft, primarily in long period SW swell. Satellite imagery shows clusters of strong showers and thunderstorms offshore of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse in the Papagayo region on Sun, becoming moderate to fresh through early next week. Expect fresh SW winds south of the monsoon trough within the waters offshore of Colombia, western Panama and Costa Rica to persist through Sun night. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast elsewhere. A moderate southerly swell will continue to impact the waters west of Ecuador through this weekend. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms will persist offshore Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica through Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for information on the 1009 mb low pressure near 13N128W. Fresh winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present from the monsoon trough to 24N between 125W and 140W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere across the open waters. The ridge will linger to the north, with moderate E trades and fairly tranquil marine conditions expected north of the convergence zone. $$ AReinhart