000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240313 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jul 24 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad 1009 mb low pressure located near 12N 126.5W continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms on the north side of the low. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 15N between 124W and 131W. Earlier ASCAT data showed fresh to strong winds on the north side of the low. Earlier altimeter data showed seas of 7 to 8 ft. Environmental conditions are generally conducive for additional development, and this system could become a tropical depression this weekend or early next week before it reaches cooler waters while moving westward to west- northwestward at 10-15 kt. The disturbance has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. Fresh to strong winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are likely within 120 nm north of this low pressure area as it continues west over the next several days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 105W, from 04N to 16N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is evident from 08.5N to 16N between 99W and 108W. Another tropical wave is near 115W, from 04N to 16N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to 13N between 109W and 120W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 07N78W to 07N93W to 11N113W to 1009 mb low pressure near 12N126W to 12N135W to 11N140W. In addition to the convection listed in the Tropical Waves section, scattered strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N east of 88W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 15N between 124W and 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong northerly gap winds continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This is related to high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure south of the area, with seas estimated to be 7 to 8 ft in this area. Light to gentle breezes with 3 to 5 ft seas are evident elsewhere off southern Mexico, with a component of SW swell. Farther north, mainly moderate NW winds prevail across the waters off Baja California Norte, between weak high pressure west of the region and lower pressure across northern Mexico, along with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate SE to S winds and slight seas are noted over the northern Gulf of California. For the forecast, strong to locally near-gale N winds will continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through Sat morning, diminishing to fresh to strong late Sat morning. These winds will diminish to moderate to fresh Sun. Moderate southerly flow over the northern Gulf of California will briefly become moderate to fresh Sat evening before diminishing. Light to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through mid week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure over the NW Caribbean is helping to funnel fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region with seas 7 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds prevail. Seas are 5 to 7 ft, primarily in long period SW swell. Satellite imagery shows scattered strong showers and thunderstorms offshore of northern Colombia, Panama and southern Costa Rica. For the forecast, high pressure over the NW Caribbean will continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region through Sat morning. Fresh SW winds will surge south of the monsoon trough into the waters well offshore of Colombia, western Panama and Costa Rica beginning early Sat, and persisting through Sun night. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast elsewhere. A moderate southerly swell will continue to impact the waters west of Ecuador through this weekend. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms will persist offshore Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica through this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for information on the 1009 mb low pressure near 12N126W. Elsewhere, fresh winds and seas to 8 ft are still evident mainly from 17N to 21N west of 137W, related to the remnant low of Guillermo which is now well west of 140W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere across the open waters. The ridge will linger across the waters north of the convergence zone with fairly tranquil marine conditions expected. $$ Hagen