000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232148
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jul 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 102W, from 04N to 16N, moving west at 
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is evident 
from 11N to 15N between 98W and 106W. 

Another tropical wave is near 111W, from 05N to 16N, moving west
at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted with this 
tropical wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 08N78W to 07N95W to
08N107W to 1009 mb low pressure near 12N125W to 12N135W to
10N140W. In addition to the convection listed in the Tropical 
Waves section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection 
is noted from 04N to 07N east of 84W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 13N to 15N between 122W and 126W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong northerly gap winds continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
This is related to high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and
lower pressure south of the area, with seas estimated to be 6 to
8 ft in this area. Light to gentle breezes with 3 to 5 ft seas 
are evident elsewhere off southern Mexico, with a component of SW
swell. Farther north, mainly moderate NW winds prevail across 
the waters off Baja California Norte, between weak high pressure 
west of the region and lower pressure across northern Mexico, 
along with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate SE to S winds and slight seas
are noted over the northern Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, strong to locally near-gale N winds will 
continue to pulse across the Tehuantepec region through Sat 
night. Moderate southerly flow over the northern Gulf of 
California will become moderate to fresh by Sat night, then 
diminish. Winds and seas may be higher across the northern and 
central Gulf of California with scattered showers and a few 
thunderstorms tonight. Light to moderate winds will prevail 
elsewhere through mid week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure over the NW Caribbean is helping to funnel fresh to
strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region with seas 8 to 9
ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds prevail. Seas are 4 to 6
ft, primarily in long period SW swell. South of the Galapagos
Islands, seas are 7 to 8 ft. Satellite imagery shows numerous 
moderate to scattered strong showers and thunderstorms offshore
of Colombia and Panama.

For the forecast, high pressure over the NW Caribbean will 
continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds over the 
Papagayo region through Sat morning, mainly during the overnight 
and early morning hours. Fresh SW winds are surging south of the 
monsoon trough into the waters off southern Colombia and in the 
far offshore areas of western Panama and Costa Rica. Moderate or 
weaker winds are forecast elsewhere. A moderate southerly swell 
will continue to impact the waters west of Ecuador through this 
weekend. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1009 mb surface pressure along the monsoon trough near 13N124W is
a little better organized this morning as it moves west around 10
kt. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh winds
within 90 nm north of the center. A pair of concurrent altimeter
satellite passes showed seas already to 8 ft roughly in the area
of fresh winds. Environmental conditions are generally conducive
for additional development, and there is a medium chance this 
system will become a tropical depression this weekend or early 
next week before it reaches cooler waters while moving westward 
to west- northwestward at 10 kt. Regardless, fresh to strong 
winds and 8 to 10 ft are likely within 120 north of this low 
pressure area is continues west over the next several days.

Elsewhere, fresh winds and seas to 8 ft are still evident mainly
from 15N to 20N west of 135W, related to the remnant low of
Guillermo which is now west of 140W. Seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail elsewhere 
across the open waters. The ridge will linger across the waters 
north of the convergence zone with fairly tranquil marine 
conditions expected.

$$
Christensen