000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231606 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Jul 23 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 100W, from 04N to 16N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is evident from 12N to 16N between 95W and 105W. Another tropical wave is near 110W, from 04N to 16N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted with this tropical wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 08N78W to 1009 mb low pressure near 13N124W to 11N129W to 13N135W to beyond 10N140W. In addition to the convection listed in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 07N east of 84W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 14N between 123W and 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong northerly gap winds continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This is related to high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and a tropical wave that passed through the area yesterday, with seas estimated to be 6 to 8 ft in this area. Light to gentle breezes with 3 to 5 ft seas are evident elsewhere off southern Mexico, with a component of SW swell. Farther north, mainly moderate NW winds prevail across the waters off Baja California Norte, between weak high pressure west of the region and lower pressure across northern Mexico, along with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate SE to S winds and 2 to 3 ft seas are noted over the northern Gulf of California. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection persists off mainly the coast of Guerrero. For the forecast, strong to locally near-gale N winds will continue to pulse across the Tehuantepec region through Sat night. Moderate southerly flow over the northern Gulf of California will become moderate to fresh by Sat night, then diminish. Light to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure over the NW Caribbean is helping to funnel fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region with seas 8 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds prevail. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, primarily in long period SW swell. South of the Galapagos Islands, seas are 7 to 8 ft. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to scattered strong showers and thunderstorms offshore of Colombia and Panama. For the forecast, high pressure over the NW Caribbean will continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region through Sat morning, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast elsewhere. A moderate southerly swell will continue to impact the waters west of Ecuador through this weekend. Winds will freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend allowing for seas to build across the waters north of 02N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1009 mb surface pressure along the monsoon trough near 13N124W is a little better organized this morning as it moves west around 10 kt. Fresh winds, seas to 8 ft and scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 90 nm in the north quadrant of the low. Environmental conditions are generally conducive for some development. But so far, there is a low chance this system will become a tropical depression over the next two day, but a medium chance it may during a brief window early next week before it moves over cooler waters. Regardless, fresh to strong winds and 8 to 10 ft are likely within 120 north of this low pressure area is continues west over the next several days. Elsewhere, fresh winds and seas to 8 ft are still evident mainly from 15N to 20N west of 135W, related to the remnant low of Guillermo which is now west of 140W. Seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail elsewhere across the open waters. The ridge will linger across the waters north of the convergence zone with fairly tranquil marine conditions expected. $$ Christensen