000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230944
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Jul 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0910 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 100W, from 04N to 16N, moving west at 10
to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is evident 
from 07N to 15.5N between 97W and 106W. 

Another tropical wave is near 109W, from 04N to 16N, moving west
at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N 
to 11.5N between 108W and 117W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 08N78W to 07N82W to 
09N92W to 1011 mb low pres near 12N123.5W to beyond 10N140W. In 
addition to the convection listed in the Tropical Waves section, 
scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N
between 77W and 86W and from 08N and 10N between 89W and 93W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is north of the
low from 12N to 16N between 120W and 128W. The monsoon trough is
expected to enhance heavy rain and possible flooding over 
portions of Costa Rica and Panama through this weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong northerly gap winds continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
This is related to high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and a 
tropical wave that passed through the area earlier on Thursday, 
with seas estimated to be 6 to 8 ft in this area. Light to 
gentle breezes with 3 to 5 ft seas are evident elsewhere off 
southern Mexico, with a component of SW swell. Farther north, 
mainly moderate NW winds prevail across the waters off Baja 
California Norte, between weak high pressure west of the region 
and lower pressure across northern Mexico, along with 4 to 6 ft 
seas. Moderate SE to S winds and 2 to 3 ft seas are noted over 
the northern Gulf of California. Latest satellite imagery shows
that most of the earlier showers and thunderstorms have
dissipated from Mexican waters, except offshore Oaxaca and
Guerrero, enhanced by the tropical wave along 100W.

For the forecast, strong to locally near-gale N winds will 
continue to pulse across the Tehuantepec region through Sat 
night. Light to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through 
Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure over the NW Caribbean is helping to funnel fresh to
strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region with seas 8 to 9
ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds prevail. Seas are 4 to 6
ft, primarily in long period SW swell. South of the Galapagos
Islands, seas are 7 to 8 ft. Satellite imagery shows numerous 
moderate to scattered strong showers and thunderstorms offshore
of Colombia and Panama.

For the forecast, high pressure over the NW Caribbean will 
continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds over the 
Papagayo region through Sat morning, mainly during the overnight 
and early morning hours. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast 
elsewhere. A moderate southerly swell will continue to impact the
waters west of Ecuador through this weekend. Winds will freshen 
south of the monsoon trough this weekend allowing for seas to 
build across the waters north of 02N. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low pressure of what was Guillermo is crossing 140W
near 15N and has weakened. Fresh winds and 8 to 9 ft seas north
of this low will diminish late today. Another area of low 
pressure is centered near 12N123.5W, with an estimated pressure 
of 1011 mb. This area of disturbed weather is producing a large 
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms on the north side 
of the low. Environmental conditions are generally conducive for 
some development, and this system could become a tropical 
depression this weekend before it moves across cooler waters 
early next week. This system has a low chance of developing into 
a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves westward 
to west-northwestward at around 10 kt. The low is forecast to 
deepen slightly over the next couple of days, allowing strong 
winds and seas building to 11 ft through Sat evening from 13N to 
17N between 125W and 136W. Seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail elsewhere 
across the open waters. The ridge will linger across the waters 
north of the convergence zone with fairly tranquil marine 
conditions expected.

$$
Hagen