000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222206 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jul 22 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 96/97W, from 04N northward into southern Mexico, nearly stationary. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 10N to 14N between 93W and 100W. Another tropical wave is near 104W, from 05N to 17N, moving west around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted with this tropical wave at this time. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N76W to across Panama and southern Costa Rica to 12N130W to beyond 10N140W. In addition to the convection listed in the Tropical Wave section, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N east of 90W, and from 09N to 11N between 90W and 97W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 12N between 112W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong northerly gap winds continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This is related to a passing tropical wave that passed through the area, with seas estimated to be 5 to 8 ft in this area. Light to gentle breezes with 3 to 5 ft seas are evident elsewhere off southern Mexico, with a component of SW swell. Farther north, mainly moderate to locally fresh NW winds prevail across the waters off Baja California, between weak high pressure west of the region and lower pressure across northern Mexico, along with 4 to 6 ft seas in this area. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and slight seas are noted over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, strong to near-gale N winds will continue to pulse across the Tehuantepec region through Sat night. Moderate to locally fresh SE flow will develop in the Gulf of California today through Sat. Winds and seas may be higher in the Gulf of California in the evenings as showers and thunderstorms over mainland Mexico move into the Gulf. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure over the NW Caribbean is helping to funnel fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region with seas to 8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds prevail. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, primarily in long period SW swell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active beyond 150 nm off Costa Rica and western Panama, on the south side of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, high pressure over the NW Caribbean will continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region through at least Fri Night, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast elsewhere. A moderate southerly swell will impact the waters west of Ecuador beginning today. Winds will freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend allowing for seas to build across the waters north of 02N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low pressure of what was Guillermo is near 16N136W, with an estimated pressure of 1012 mb. A few thunderstorms are evident within 120 nm in the northeast quadrant of the low. Associated winds are mainly fresh on the northern side of the low pressure, between the low and ridging dominating the waters north of 20N and west of 120W. Seas are estimated to be 8 to 10 ft related to this. Another area of low pressure is centered near 11N121W, with an estimated pressure 1012 mb. Seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail elsewhere across the open waters. For the forecast, the remnant low of Guillermo will open up to a trough with diminishing winds through the end of the week, while associated seas will be slower to decay. Otherwise, the ridge will linger across the waters north of the convergence zone with fairly tranquil marine conditions expected as Guillermo spins down. The low near 11N121W will deepen slightly over the next couple of days, allowing strong winds and seas building to 10 ft through Sat from 12N to 16N between 125W and 130W. $$ Christensen