000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221559 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Jul 22 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 96W, from 04N northward into southern Mexico, nearly stationary. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 13N to 15n between 95W and 99W. This convection may be due in large part to convergence of gap winds emerging out of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Another tropical wave is near 102W, from 05N northward into southern Mexico, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 103W and 106W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N76W to across Panama and southern Costa Rica to 08N100W to 12N130W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N east of 90W, and from 09N to 11N between 90W and 97W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 12N between 112W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong northerly gap winds continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This is related to a passing tropical wave, with seas estimated to be 5 to 7 ft in this area. Light to gentle breezes with 3 to 5 ft seas are evident elsewhere off southern Mexico, with a component of SW swell. Farther north, mainly moderate to locally fresh NW winds prevail across the waters off Baja California, between weak high pressure west of the region and lower pressure across northern Mexico, along with 4 to 6 ft seas in this area. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and slight seas are noted over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the fresh to strong N winds will continue to pulse across the Tehuantepec region through Sat night. Moderate to locally fresh winds offshore of Baja California will diminish this morning. Moderate to locally fresh SE flow will develop in the Gulf of California today through Sat. Winds and seas may be higher in the Gulf of California in the evenings as showers and thunderstorms over mainland Mexico move into the Gulf. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure over the NW Caribbean is helping to funnel fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region with seas to 8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds prevail. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, primarily in long period SW swell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active beyond 150 nm off Costa Rica and western Panama, on the south side of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, High pressure over the NW Caribbean will continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region through at least Sat, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast elsewhere. A moderate southerly swell will impact the waters west of Ecuador by later today. Winds will freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend allowing for seas to build across the waters north of 02N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low pressure of what was Guillermo is near 16N135W, with an estimated pressure of 1010 mb. There is no thunderstorm activity near this feature. Associated winds are mainly fresh on the northern side of the low pressure, between the low and ridging dominating the waters north of 20N and west of 120W. Seas are estimated to be 8 to 10 ft related to this. Seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail elsewhere across the open waters. For the forecast, the remnant low of Guillermo will open up to a trough with diminishing winds through the end of the week, while associated seas will be slower to decay. Otherwise, the ridge will linger across the waters north of the convergence zone with fairly tranquil marine conditions expected as Guillermo spins down. A moderate SW swell will build seas to 7 to 9 ft south of 07N and east of 110W by the end of the week, then decaying this weekend. $$ Christensen/Lewitsky