000 AXPZ20 KNHC 211611 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jul 21 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 92W, from 03N northward into southern Mexico, moving west at around 10 kt. Another tropical wave is near 100W, from 03N northward into southern Mexico, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active between the tropical waves from 09N to 12N between 93W and 98W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 11N130W to 10N140W. In addition to the convection mentioned in the Tropical Wave section above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 06N between 78W and 88W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 09N to 12N between 105W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 09N between 120W and 125W, and from 11N to 14N between 113w and 117W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge over the Gulf of Mexico continues to support fresh to strong N winds in the Tehuantepec region and seas to 6 ft. A ridge extends across the offshore waters of Baja California in the wake of post-tropical cyclone Guillermo well west of the area, while troughing is noted over the Baja California Peninsula. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are noted under this pattern west of Baja California. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds prevail, along with 4 to 6 ft seas, except 3 ft or less in the central and northern Gulf of California. Scattered thunderstorms that developed over mainland Mexico yesterday afternoon and evening have propagated westward into the central and southern Gulf of California overnight likely resulting in higher winds and seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds will continue to pulse across the Tehuantepec region through Sat night. Moderate to locally fresh winds offshore of Baja California will diminish by the end of the week. Moderate to locally fresh SE flow will develop in the Gulf of California Thu through Fri. Winds and seas may be higher in the Gulf of California in the evenings as convection over mainland Mexico moves into the Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh SE flow will prevail in the northern Gulf of California by the end of the week. A moderate NW swell may impact the waters offshore of Baja California Norte toward the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure over the NW Caribbean is helping to funnel fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region with seas to 8 ft. Moderate N wins are blowing across the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds prevail. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, primarily in long period SW swell. For the forecast, high pressure over the NW Caribbean will continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region through the week, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast elsewhere. A moderate southerly swell will impact the waters west of Ecuador by the end of the week. Winds will freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend allowing for seas to build across the waters north of 02N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Post-tropical cyclone Felicia west of the area in the Central Pacific basin extends associated remnant seas of 8 to 11 ft from 13N to 21N west of 135W. Post-tropical cyclone Guillermo is centered near 18N129W with remnant fresh to strong winds in the northwest quadrant, and seas of 8 to 11 ft within roughly 120 nm of the center. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends across the northern waters and then southeast to the east of Guillermo. Moderate to fresh trades prevail north of the convergence zone, with gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail across the open waters outside of the influences of Felicia and Guillermo, in mixed long period northerly and southerly swell. For the forecast, conditions east of 140W associated with Felicia will diminish and subside by this afternoon. Post- tropical Guillermo will open up to a trough with diminishing winds through the end of the week, while associated seas will be slower to decay. Otherwise, the ridge will linger across the waters north of the convergence zone with fairly tranquil marine conditions expected as Felicia departs and as Guillermo spins down. $$ Christensen/Lewitsky