000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210843 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jul 21 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0710 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 90W/91W, from 03N northward across northern Central America, moving W at around 10 kt. The wave is helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms over parts of Central America, as well as within 30 nm of the coast of El Salvador. A tropical wave is near 99W, from 03N northward into southern Mexico, moving W at around 10 kt. No associated convection over water is noted with this tropical wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 08N96W to 08N118W to 11N134W. The ITCZ continues from 11N134W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 05N between 78W and 90W, from 10N to 12N between 100W and 107W, from 07N to 10N between 109W and 120W, from 12N to 16N between 114W and 120W, from 08N to 12N between 121W and 127W, and from 07N to 11N between 134W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge over the Gulf of Mexico continues to support fresh to strong N winds in the Tehuantepec region and seas to 6 ft. A ridge extends across the offshore waters of Baja California in the wake of post-tropical cyclone Guillermo well west of the area, while troughing is noted over the Baja California Peninsula. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are noted under this pattern west of Baja California. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds prevail, along with 3 to 6 ft seas, except 3 ft or less in the central and northern Gulf of California. Scattered thunderstorms that developed over mainland Mexico yesterday afternoon and evening have propagated westward into the central and southern Gulf of California overnight likely resulting in higher winds and seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds will continue to pulse across the Tehuantepec region through Sat night. Moderate to locally fresh winds offshore of Baja California will diminish by the end of the week. Moderate to locally fresh SE flow will develop in the Gulf of California Thu through Fri. Winds and seas may be higher in the Gulf of California in the evenings as convection over mainland Mexico moves into the Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh SE flow will prevail in the northern Gulf of California by the end of the week. A moderate NW swell may impact the waters offshore of Baja California Norte toward the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure over the NW Caribbean is helping to funnel fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region with seas to 8 ft. Moderate N wins are blowing across the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds prevail. Seas are 3 to 6 ft, primarily in long period SW swell. For the forecast, high pressure over the NW Caribbean will continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region through the week, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast elsewhere. A moderate southerly swell will impact the waters west of Ecuador by the end of the week. Winds will freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend allowing for seas to build across the waters north of 02N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Post-tropical cyclone Felicia west of the area in the Central Pacific basin extends associated remnant seas of 8 to 11 ft from 13N to 21N west of 136W. Post-tropical cyclone Guillermo is centered near 18N129W with remnant fresh to strong winds in the northwest quadrant, and seas of 8 to 11 ft within roughly 150 nm of the center. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends across the northern waters and then southeast to the east of Guillermo. Moderate to fresh trades prevail north of the convergence zone, with gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail across the open waters outside of the influences of Felicia and Guillermo, in mixed long period northerly and southerly swell. For the forecast, conditions east of 140W associated with Felicia will diminish and subside by this afternoon. Post- tropical Guillermo will open up to a trough with diminishing winds through the end of the week, while associated seas will be slower to decay. Otherwise, the ridge will linger across the waters north of the convergence zone with fairly tranquil marine conditions expected as Felicia departs and as Guillermo spins down. $$ Lewitsky