000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210244
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jul 21 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 89W/90W, from 03N northward across 
northern Central America, moving W at around 10 kt. The wave is 
helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms over parts 
of Central America. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
03N to 05N between 83W and 88W.

A second tropical wave is near 98W, from 03N northward into 
southern Mexico, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No associated 
convection is noted at this time. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to
07N95W to 12N122W to 10N130W. The ITCZ continues from 10N130W to
10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 
102W and 137W. Similar convection is noted within 300 nm north of
the monsoon trough between 102W and 124W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge over the Gulf of Mexico continues to support fresh to
strong N winds in the Tehuantepec region and seas to 7 ft. A 
ridge is building across the offshore waters of Baja California 
in the wake of post-tropical cyclone Guillermo well west of the
area, while troughing is noted over the Baja California
Peninsula. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are noted under
this pattern west of Baja California. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds prevail, along with 3 to 6 ft seas, except 3 ft or
less in the central and northern Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds will continue to pulse
across the Tehuantepec region through Sat night. Moderate to 
locally fresh winds offshore of Baja California will diminish by 
the end of the week. Moderate to locally fresh SE flow will 
develop in the Gulf of California Thu through Fri. Winds and seas
may be higher in the Gulf of California in the evenings as 
convection over mainland Mexico moves into the Gulf. Moderate to 
locally fresh SE flow will prevail in the northern Gulf of 
California by the end of the week. A moderate NW swell may impact
the waters offshore of Baja California Norte toward the end of 
the week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure over the NW Caribbean is helping to funnel fresh to
strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region with seas to 7 ft.
Moderate N wins are blowing across the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds prevail. Seas are 3 to 6 ft, primarily 
in long period SW swell.

For the forecast, high pressure over the NW Caribbean will 
continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds over the 
Papagayo region through the week, mainly during the overnight and
early morning hours. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast 
elsewhere. A moderate southerly swell will impact the waters west
of Ecuador by the end of the week.Winds will freshen south of 
the monsoon trough this weekend allowing for seas to build across
the waters north of 02N.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Tropical Depression Felicia has moved west of the area into the
Central Pacific basin. Associated outer winds and seas are still
impacting a portion of the waters mainly from 14N to 21N west of
135W. Post-tropical cyclone Guillermo is centered near
18.5N127.5W this evening with remnant fresh to strong winds and 
seas of 8 to 11 ft. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends across the
northern waters and then southeast to the east of Guillermo. 
Moderate to fresh trades prevail north of the convergence zone, 
with gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the monsoon 
trough. Seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail across the open waters outside 
of the influences of Felicia and Guillermo, in mixed long period 
northerly and southerly swell.

For the forecast, conditions associated with Felicia will
diminish and subside by Wed afternoon. Post-tropical Guillermo
will open up to a trough with diminishing winds through the end
of the week, while associated seas will be slower to decay.
Otherwise, the ridge will linger across the waters north of the
convergence zone with fairly tranquil marine conditions expected
as Felicia departs and as Guillermo spins down.

$$
Lewitsky