000 AXPZ20 KNHC 202127 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jul 20 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Felicia weakens to a Tropical Depression as it enters the central Pacific. At 20/2100 UTC, Felicia is centered near 15.3N 139.4W moving WSW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. No deep convection is associated with Felicia. Peak seas are currently 14 ft. Additional weakening is forecast and Felicia is expected to become a remnant low by Wednesday. This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on Felicia can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 500 PM HST. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov Guillermo becomes a Post-Tropical Cyclone and the last advisory is issued on this system by the National Hurricane Center at 20/2100 UTC. At this time, Post-Tropical Cyclone Guillermo is centered near 18.7N 126.5W at 20/2100 UTC moving W at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. No deep convection is associated with this system. An altimeter pass shows seas to 11 ft within about 120 nm NE quadrant of center. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 88W, from 02N northward across northern Central America. The wave is helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms over parts of Belize and Guatemala. It is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Small area of moderate convection is near the southern end of the wave axis over the Pacific waters. A second tropical wave is near 96W/97W, from 02N northward into southeast Mexico, moving W at around 10 kt. No associated convection is noted at this time. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to across Western Panama and southern Costa Rica to 07N90W to 09N110W to 12N122W to 09N136W. The ITCZ continues from 09N136W to beyond 09N140W. A small cluster of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near 06N79W. Similar convection can be found within about 75 nm N of the monsoon trough between 90W and 96W, from 06N to 10N between 100W and 107W, from 09N to 13N between 107W and 111W, and from 09N to 12N between 111W and 123W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section for information on Post- Tropical Cyclone Guillermo. A ridge over the Gulf of Mexico continues to support fresh to strong N winds in the Tehuantepec region. A ridge is building across the offshore waters of Baja California in the wake of post-tropical cyclone Guillermo. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds are noted W of Baja California, with moderate to locally fresh NW winds near Cabo San Lucas. Light and variable winds prevail in the Gulf of California as well as over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters based on latest satellite derived wind data. Seas are generally in the 3 to 5 ft range across the offshore waters, except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, a ridge over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to support fresh to strong northerly winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours through the next several days with seas building to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail west of Baja California through at least Fri. Winds and seas may be higher in the Gulf of California in the evenings as convection over mainland Mexico moves into the Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh SE flow will prevail in the northern Gulf of California by the end of the week. A moderate NW swell may impact the waters offshore of Baja California Norte toward the end of the work-week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure over the NW Caribbean is helping to funnel fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region with seas to 8 ft. Elsewhere, outside of the gap wind areas, mainly light to gentle winds are noted. Seas are 3 to 5 ft, primarily from long-period SW swell. For the forecast, high pressure over the NW Caribbean will continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region through the week, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. Elsewhere, little change in winds and seas are expected. By the end of the week, cross equatorial SW swell are forecast to build seas to 6-8 ft across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for details on T.D. Felicia and Post-Tropical Cyclone Guillermo. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends across the northern waters. The strongest winds associated with Felicia and Guillermo are observed per scatterometer data on the northern semicircle of these systems due the presence of a ridge to the N of them. South of the monsoon and W of 110W there are moderate to locally fresh southerly winds. Seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail outside of the influence of the tropical cyclones in mixed long period northerly and southerly swell. For the forecast, as Felicia moves W of the area tonight, and Guillermo dissipates, the ridge will build across the forecast waters bringing moderate to fresh trade winds. Seas will subside somewhat by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend. $$ GR