048 AXPZ20 KNHC 201533 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Jul 20 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Felicia is centered near 15.8N 138.0W at 20/1500 UTC moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. No deep convection is associated with Felicia. Peak seas are currently 14 ft. Felicia continues weakening. It is forecast to become a tropical depression today, move into the Central Pacific basin tonight, and degenerate into a remnant low by Wednesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Guillermo is centered near 19.2N 125.0W at 20/1500 UTC moving W at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. No deep convection is associated with Guillermo. Peak seas are currently 12 ft. Guillermo is expected to become a remnant low later today with dissipation in a few days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 87W, from 02N northward across Honduras into the Gulf of Honduras where it is generating some shower and thunderstorm activity. It is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Small area of moderate convection is near the southern end of the wave axis over the Pacific waters. A tropical wave is near 96W, from 02N northward into southeast Mexico, moving W at around 10 kt. No associated convection is noted at this time. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to across Western Panama and Costa Rica to 08N100W to 10N115W to 11N126W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 105W and 111W, and from 06N to 11N between 128W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section for information on Tropical Depression Guillermo. A ridge over the Gulf of Mexico continues to support fresh to strong N winds in the Tehuantepec region. A weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters between Baja California and Guillermo. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are funneling right offshore of Baja California as well as right offshore of Cabo Corrientes southward, with light to gentle anticyclonic winds elsewhere under the ridge. Seas are in the 4 to 7 ft range across the waters, except 3 ft or less in the central and northern Gulf of California. For the forecast, Guillermo is forecast to continue to move away from the offshore waters while weakening. Otherwise, a ridge over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to support fresh to strong northerly winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec mainly during the overnight hours through the next several days. Moderate to fresh NW winds will prevail west of Baja California through mid-week. Winds and seas may be higher in the Gulf of California in the evenings through mid-week as convection over mainland Mexico moves into the Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh SE flow will prevail in the Gulf of California by the end of the week. A moderate NW swell may impact the waters offshore of Baja California Norte toward the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure over the NW Caribbean is helping to funnel fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region with seas to 8 ft. Elsewhere, outside of the gap wind areas, mainly light to gentle winds are noted. Seas are 3 to 5 ft, primarily from long-period SW swell. For the forecast, high pressure over the NW Caribbean will help funnel fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region through the week, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. Elsewhere, little change in winds and seas are expected. By the end of the week, cross equatorial SW swell are forecast to build seas to 6-7 ft across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for details on tropical cyclones Felicia and Guillermo. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends across the northern waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the tropical cyclones is supporting fresh to strong winds mainly across the northern semicircles of Felicia and Guillermo. South of the monsoon trough there are moderate southerly winds, except locally fresh west of 120W. Seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail outside of the influence of the tropical cyclones in mixed long period northerly and southerly swell. For the forecast, the ridge will build across the forecast waters as Felicia moves west of the area tonight while weakening, and as Guillermo continues to weaken, bringing moderate to fresh trade winds. Seas will subside somewhat by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend. $$ GR