000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200844 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Jul 20 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0710 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Felicia is centered near 15.9N 136.3W at 20/0900 UTC moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. No deep convection is currently associated with Felicia. Peak seas are currently 14 ft. Felicia is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression this afternoon, move into the Central Pacific basin early Wed, become a remnant low Wed afternoon, and dissipate early Fri. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Guillermo is centered near 19.0N 123.4W at 20/0900 UTC moving W at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. No deep convection is currently associated with Guillermo. Peak seas are currently 12 ft. Guillermo is forecast to become a remnant low this afternoon, dissipating early Fri. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 84W/85W, from 02N northward across western Costa Rica and Nicaragua, continuing into the western Caribbean Sea, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No associated convection is noted over the Pacific waters, however scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over portions of Honduras, Nicaragua, and western Costa Rica. A tropical wave is near 94W/95W, from 02N northward into southeast Mexico, moving W at around 10 kt. No associated convection is noted over the Pacific waters, however convection is occurring over portions of southeast Mexico including the Yucatan Peninsula. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to across Costa Rica to 1011 mb low pressure near 08N108W to 12N116W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 07N between 78W and 80W, within 13N112W to 14N99W to 06N97W to 09N112W to 13N112W, and within 10N135W to 12N121W to 05N131W to 10N135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section for information on Tropical Depression Guillermo. A ridge over the Gulf of Mexico continues to support fresh to strong N winds in the Tehuantepec region. A weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters between Baja California and Guillermo. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are funneling right offshore of Baja California as well as right offshore of Cabo Corrientes southward, with light to gentle anticyclonic winds elsewhere under the ridge. Seas are in the 4 to 7 ft range across the waters, except 3 ft or less in the central and northern Gulf of California. For the forecast, Guillermo is forecast to continue to move away from the offshore waters while weakening. Otherwise, a ridge over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to support fresh to strong northerly winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec mainly during the overnight hours through the next several days. Moderate to fresh NW winds will prevail west of Baja California through mid-week. Winds and seas may be higher in the Gulf of California in the evenings through mid-week as convection over mainland Mexico moves into the Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh SE flow will prevail in the Gulf of California by the end of the week. A moderate NW swell may impact the waters offshore of Baja California Norte toward the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds are over the Papagayo region with seas to 7 ft. Moderate NW-N winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are 3 to 6 ft, primarily from long-period SW swell, highest offshore of Ecuador. For the forecast, high pressure over the NW Caribbean will help funnel fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region through the next several days, mainly during the overnight hours. Elsewhere moderate winds or weaker are expected. Cross equatorial SW swell is forecast to build seas across the waters by the end of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for details on tropical cyclones Felicia and Guillermo. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends across the northern waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the tropical cyclones is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds across the waters. South of the monsoon trough there are moderate southerly winds, except locally fresh west of 120W. Seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail outside of the influence of the tropical cyclones in mixed long period northerly and southerly swell. For the forecast, the ridge will build across the forecast waters as Felicia moves west of the area tonight while weakening, and as Guillermo continues to weaken, bringing moderate to fresh trade winds. Seas will subside somewhat by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend. $$ Lewitsky