529 AXPZ20 KNHC 200243 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Jul 20 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0110 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Felicia is centered near 16.1N 134.8W at 20/0300 UTC moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 75 nm in the north semicircle. Peak seas are currently 17 ft. Additional weakening is forecast, and Felicia is expected to become a tropical depression by Tue afternoon and degenerate into a remnant low in a couple of days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Guillermo is centered near 19.3N 122.0W at 20/0300 UTC moving W at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Guillermo remains a sheared tropical depression with isolated to scattered moderate convection between 75 nm and 150 nm in the southeast quadrant. The depression is forecast to become a remnant low on Tue, and open up into a trough of low pressure by Fri. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 83W, from 02N northward across eastern Costa Rica and into the western Caribbean Sea, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. No associated convection is noted over the Pacific waters, however convection is occurring over portions of Honduras, Nicaragua, and western Costa rica. A tropical wave is near 93W/94W, from 05N northward into southeast Mexico, moving slowly W at around 5 kt. No associated convection is noted over the Pacific waters, however convection is occurring over portions of southeast MExico including the Yucatan Peninsula. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to across Costa Rica to 08N95W to 1011 mb low pressure near 07N108W to 12N116W. The ITCZ begins from 12N138W and continues beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 16N115W to 14N106W to 10N98W to 07N98W to 07N106W to 16N115W, and within 10N133W to 14N117W to 10N122W to 06N129W to 10N133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section for information on Tropical Depression Guillermo. A ridge over the Gulf of Mexico continues to support fresh to strong N winds in the Tehuantepec region. A weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters between Baja California and Tropical Depression Guillermo. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are funneling right offshore of Baja California as well as right offshore of mainland Mexico from the southern Gulf of California southward, with light to gentle anticyclonic winds elsewhere under the ridge. Seas are in the 4 to 7 ft range across the waters, except 3 ft or less in the central and northern Gulf of California. For the forecast, Guillermo is forecast to continue to move away from the offshore waters while weakening. Otherwise, a ridge over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to support fresh to strong northerly winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec mainly during the overnight hours through the next several days. Moderate to fresh NW winds will prevail west of Baja California through mid-week. Winds and seas may be higher in the Gulf of California in the evenings through mid-week as convection over mainland Mexico moves into the Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh SE flow will prevail in the Gulf of California by the end of the week. A moderate NW swell may impact the waters offshore of Baja California Norte toward the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds are over the Papagayo region with seas to 8 ft. Moderate NW-N winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are 3 to 6 ft, primarily from long-period SW swell, highest offshore of Ecuador. For the forecast, high pressure over the NW Caribbean will help funnel fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region through the week and into the upcoming weekend, mainly during the overnight hours. Elsewhere moderate winds or weaker are expected. Cross equatorial SW swell is forecast to build seas across the waters by the end of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for details on tropical cyclones Felicia and Guillermo. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends across the northern waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the tropical cyclones is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds across the waters. South of the monsoon trough and west of 110W, there are moderate to locally fresh southerly winds. Seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail outside of the influence of the tropical cyclones in mixed long period northerly and southerly swell. For the forecast, the ridge will build across the forecast waters as Felicia moves west of the area by Tue night and as Guillermo continues to weaken, bringing moderate to fresh trade winds. Seas will subside somewhat by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend. $$ Lewitsky