514 AXPZ20 KNHC 192132 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jul 19 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Felicia is downgraded to a Tropical Storm at 19/2100 UTC. At this time, it is centered near 16.1N 133.4W moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm N semicircle. Peak seas have diminished to 18 ft. Felicia is rapidly weakening as it heads toward the central Pacific, and it is expected to become a remnant low in a couple of days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. Guillermo is also downgraded to a Tropical Depression at 19/2100 UTC. At this time, it is centered near 19.3N 119.8W moving W at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Guillermo remains a sheared and poorly organized tropical system with only scattered moderate convection within about 75 NM SE semicircle. The depression is forecast to become a remnant low by Wednesday night, if not sooner, and open up into a trough of low pressure by Friday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 93W, from 05N northward into SE Mexico, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the southern end of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Panama to 08N93W to 08N106W to 12N115W, then continues SW of Guillermo from 13N120W to 11N130W. The ITCZ begins at 12N135W and continues to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 10N between 92W and 100W, from 05N to 14N between 100W and 112W, and from 07N to 13N between 120W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Guillermo. A weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing light to gentle winds. Seas are 4-6 ft N of 25N, and 6-8 ft S of 25N W of 112W due to the proximity of tropical cyclone Guillermo. A recent Scatterometer pass shows northerly winds of 20-30 kt in the Tehuantepec region where seas are in the 8-9 ft range. A ridge over the Gulf of Mexico supports this gap wind event. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere across the remainder of the Mexican offshore zones, with seas of 4-5 ft. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate SE-S winds will prevail through the forecast period, with seas of 1-3 ft, except 4 to 5 ft near the entrance. For the forecast, a ridge over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to support fresh to strong northerly winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec mainly during the overnight hours through the week. A moderate NW swell may impact the waters offshore of Baja California Norte toward the end of the week. As tropical cyclone Guillermo moves away from the offshore waters of Baja California, expect the ridge to build again across the region producing moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds by mid-week. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate SE-S winds will prevail through the forecast period, with seas of 1-3 ft, except 4 to 5 ft near the entrance. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure over the NW Caribbean is helping to funnel fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region with seas to 8 ft. Elsewhere, outside of the gap wind areas, mainly light to gentle winds are noted. Seas are 3 to 5 ft, primarily from long-period SW swell. For the forecast, high pressure over the NW Caribbean will help funnel fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region through the week, mainly during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, little change in winds and seas are expected. By the end of the week, cross equatorial SW swell are forecast to build seas to 6-7 ft across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for details on tropical cyclones Felicia and Guillermo. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends across the northern waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the tropical cyclones is producing moderate to fresh ne winds across the waters from 20N-25N W of 115W. South of the monsoon trough west of 110W, there are moderate to locally fresh southerly winds. A pair of altimeter passes provide observations of 6-9 ft S of Felicia, particularly S of 12N W of 120W. Elsewhere, outside of Felicia and Guillermo, seas of 4-6 ft generally prevail. In the forecast, as Felicia moves W of area in a couple of days and Guillermo continues to weaken, the ridge will build across the forecast waters bringing moderate to fresh trade winds. $$ GR