000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191559 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Jul 19 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Felicia is centered near 16.3N 132.3W at 19/1500 UTC moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous moderate to strong within 120 nm NE and 60 nm SW semicircles. Peak seas are currently 28 ft. Felicia is rapidly weakening as it heads toward the central Pacific. Felicia is a very small hurricane, and is expected to become a tropical storm later today and a remnant low in a few days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Guillermo is centered near 19.0N 117.8W at 19/1500 UTC moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Guillermo is weakening, and it is forecast to become a depression on Tuesday, if not sooner, and degenerate to a remnant low on Wednesday night. Guillermo remains a sheared tropical system. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 75 NM SW semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 14N to 17N between 113W and 116W. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 92W, from 05N northward into Guatemala and and SE Mexico, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted in association with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Panama to 08N92W to 09N108W, then continues SW of Guillermo from 14N117W to 13N126W. The ITCZ begins at 12N133W and continues to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 87W and 110W. Similar convection is from 09N to 12N between 120W and 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Guillermo. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge over the Gulf of Mexico is forcing fresh to strong N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, along with 5 to 8 ft seas. Moderate or weaker winds cover the remainder of the Mexican offshore zones. Except in the vicinity of Tropical Storm Guillermo, seas are 4 to 6 ft over the Pacific offshores, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California, except 4 to 5 ft near the entrance. For the forecast, a high pressure ridge over the Gulf of Mexico will force fresh to strong N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec mainly during the overnight hours through the week. A moderate NW swell may impact the waters offshore of Baja California Norte toward the end of the week. Winds will pulse to moderate to fresh offshore of Baja California by mid-week due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Southerly winds will pulse to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of California during the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure over the NW Caribbean is helping to funnel fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region with seas of 5 to 8 ft. Elsewhere winds over the Central American and Equatorial Pacific offshore waters are moderate or weaker. Seas are 3 to 6 ft, primarily from long-period SW swell. For the forecast, high pressure over the NW Caribbean will help funnel fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region through the week, mainly during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, winds will be fairly tranquil over the waters for the next several days. A moderate southerly swell may impact the waters by the end of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Felicia and Tropical Storm Guillermo. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends across the northern waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge along with lower pressures over the ITCZ/monsoon trough are forcing moderate to fresh NE trades. South of the monsoon trough west of 110W, there are moderate to fresh SE winds. Except in the vicinity of Felicia and Guillermo, seas are 5 to 8 ft south of 20N, highest south of 10N, primarily due to SW swell. Seas are 5 to 8 ft north of 20N, aided by some NW swell. In the forecast away from Felicia and Guillermo, the NE trades should change little, while the SE winds south of the monsoon trough should diminish some by Tue. Likewise, seas south of 20N should lower slightly beginning on Tue. $$ GR