000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190839 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Jul 19 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0710 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Felicia is centered near 16.4N 131.0W at 19/0900 UTC moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted within 30 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted elsewhere within 75 nm of the center. Peak seas are currently 28 ft. Additional weakening is expected during the next several days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Guillermo is centered near 18.8N 116.8W at 19/0900 UTC moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Guillermo remains a sheared tropical storm with scattered moderate to strong convection noted within 420 nm in the southeast quadrant. Peak seas are currently 21 ft. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 89W, from 01N northward into El Salvador and western Honduras, moving slowly W at around 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is noted over water, however some thunderstorms are occurring over portions of Guatemala ahead of the tropical wave. A tropical wave is near 94W, from 01N northward to across southeast Mexico and continuing northward over the Bay of Campeche, moving slowly W at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 92W and 95W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 09N74W to across Panama and southern Costa Rica to 07N92W. The ITCZ begins in segments from 07N95W to 10N108W. Another monsoon trough segment is between the tropical cyclones from 15N115W to 12N130W. Another ITCZ segment is from 12N133W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm north of the axis between 97W and 108W, within 120 nm south of the axis between 115W and 125W, and from 09N to 11N between 136W and 140W. Similar convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 97W and 102W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 77W and 87W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Guillermo. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge over the Gulf of Mexico is forcing fresh to strong N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, along with 5 to 8 ft seas. Moderate or weaker winds cover the remainder of the Mexican offshore zones. Except in the vicinity of Tropical Storm Guillermo, seas are 4 to 6 ft over the Pacific offshores, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California, except 4 to 5 ft near the entrance. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Guillermo will move to 18.9N 118.9W this afternoon, 18.9N 121.7W Tue morning, 18.7N 124.6W Tue afternoon, 18.5N 127.5W Wed morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 18.3N 130.3W Wed afternoon, and move to 18.2N 132.8W Thu morning. Guillermo will change little in intensity as it moves to 18.2N 137.8W early Fri. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge over the Gulf of Mexico will force fresh to strong N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec mainly during the overnight hours through the week. A moderate NW swell may impact the waters offshore of Baja California Norte toward the end of the week. Winds will pulse to moderate to fresh offshore of Baja California by mid-week due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Southerly winds will pulse to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of California during the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure over the NW Caribbean is helping to funnel fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region with seas of 5 to 8 ft. Elsewhere winds over the Central American and Equatorial Pacific offshore waters are moderate or weaker. Seas are 3 to 6 ft, primarily from long-period SW swell. For the forecast, high pressure over the NW Caribbean will help funnel fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region through the week, mainly during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, winds will be fairly tranquil over the waters for the next several days. A moderate southerly swell may impact the waters by the end of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Felicia and Tropical Storm Guillermo. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends across the northern waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge along with lower pressures over the ITCZ/monsoon trough are forcing moderate to fresh NE trades. South of the monsoon trough west of 110W, there are moderate to fresh SE winds. Except in the vicinity of Felicia and Guillermo, seas are 5 to 8 ft south of 20N, highest south of 10N, primarily due to SW swell. Seas are 5 to 8 ft north of 20N, aided by some NW swell. In the forecast away from Felicia and Guillermo, the NE trades should change little, while the SE winds south of the monsoon trough should diminish some by Tue. Likewise, seas south of 20N should lower slightly beginning on Tue. $$ Lewitsky