000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190239 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jul 19 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Felicia is centered near 16.3N 130.1W at 19/0300 UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted within 45 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted elsewhere within 90 nm of the center. Peak seas are currently 24 ft. Felicia is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is expected during the next few days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Guillermo is centered near 18.9N 115.6W at 19/0300 UTC moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Guillermo is a sheared tropical storm with scattered moderate to strong convection noted within 480 nm in the southeast quadrant. Peak seas are currently 17 ft. Some fluctuations in intensity will be possible overnight and early Mon. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin by Mon night and continue for several days thereafter. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 88W, from 02N northward into El Salvador and western Honduras, moving slowly W at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 07N between 88W and 90W. A tropical wave is near 93W, from 03N northward to across southeast Mexico and continuing northward over the Bay of Campeche, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 95W and 100W, and from 11N to 13N between 97W and 100W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 09N74W to across Panama and Costa Rica to 10N87W. The ITCZ continues in segments from 07N89W to 06N96W, then from 06N98W to 07N108W. Another monsoon trough segment is between the tropical cyclones from 12N114W to 14N126W. Another ITCZ segment is from 11N131W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 77W and 87W, from 09N to 11N between 103W and 107W, from 11N to 13N between 114W and 122W, from 09N to 11N between 132W and 135W, and from 09N to 11N between 138W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Guillermo. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge over the Gulf of Mexico is forcing fresh to strong N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, along with 5 to 7 ft seas. Moderate or weaker winds cover the remainder of the Mexican offshore zones. Except in the vicinity of Tropical Storm Guillermo, seas are 4 to 6 ft over the Pacific offshores, and 3 to 5 ft in the Gulf of California, highest near the entrance. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Guillermo will move to 19.1N 117.6W Mon morning, 19.2N 120.4W Mon evening, 19.1N 123.2W Tue morning, 19.1N 126.1W Tue evening, weaken to a tropical depression near 18.9N 128.9W Wed morning, and move to 18.6N 131.6W Wed evening. Guillermo will change little in intensity as it moves to 18.3N 136.7W late Thu. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge over the Gulf of Mexico will force fresh to strong N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec mainly during the overnight hours through the week. A moderate NW swell may impact the waters offshore of Baja California Norte toward the end of the week. Elsewhere, tranquil conditions will prevail in the wake of Guillermo for the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure over the NW Caribbean is helping to funnel fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere winds over the Central American and Equatorial Pacific offshore waters are moderate or weaker. Seas are 4 to 7 ft, primarily from long-period SW swell. For the forecast, high pressure over the NW Caribbean will help funnel fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region through the week, mainly during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, winds will be fairly tranquil over the waters for the next several days. A southerly swell will impact the waters by the end of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Felicia and Tropical Storm Guillermo. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends across the northern waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge along with lower pressures over the ITCZ/monsoon trough are forcing moderate to fresh NE trades. South of the monsoon trough west of 110W, there are moderate to fresh SE winds. Except in the vicinity of Felicia and Guillermo, seas are 6 to 9 ft south of 20N, highest south of 10N, primarily due to SW swell. Seas are 5 to 8 ft north of 20N, aided by some NW swell. In the forecast away from Felicia and Guillermo, the NE trades should change little, while the SE winds south of the monsoon trough should diminish some by Tues. Likewise, seas south of 20N should lower slightly beginning on Tue. $$ Lewitsky