000 AXPZ20 KNHC 182206 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jul 18 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Felicia is centered near 16.0N 129.0W at 18/2100 UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Numerous strong convection is present within 60 NM of the center. Peak seas are near 25 ft. A westward motion is expected to begin later today or tonight, followed by a west-southwestward track through Wednesday. Weakening is expected during the next few days. Seas will gradually diminish to 15-20 ft by Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Guillermo is centered near 18.7N 113.8W at 18/2100 UTC moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted from 15N-20N between 110W-114W. Peak seas are near 15 ft. A turn toward the west with a slight increase in forward speed is anticipated tonight. The tropical storm is forecast to continue westward for the next several days after that. Some strengthening is possible today and early tomorrow. Gradual weakening is anticipated by early Tuesday. Seas anticipated to build to near 20 ft on Monday and Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 88W, from 02N northward into Nicaragua and Honduras, moving W at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 08N-11N between 88W-93W. A tropical wave is near 96W from 05N northward to across southeast Mexico and continuing northward over the Gulf of Mexico, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant deep convection is noted in association with this tropical wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Panama and Costa Rica from 08N77W to 09N86W. The ITCZ extends from 09N89W to 07N94W, then is broken by a tropical wave, then resumes from 06N98W to 08N109W. The monsoon trough resumes at 12N114W and extends to 13N125W, where there is a break south of Hurricane Felicia. The ITCZ resumes again at 10N131W and extends to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong deep convection is noted north of 05N east of 85W and from 08N-11N between 88W-93W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 10N-15N between 115W-122W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Guillermo. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge over the Gulf of Mexico is forcing fresh to strong N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate or weaker winds cover the remainder of the Mexican offshore zones. Except in the vicinity of Tropical Storm Guillermo, seas are 4-6 ft over the Pacific offshores, 3-4 ft in the central and southern Gulf of California, and 1-2 ft in the northern Gulf of California. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Guillermo near 18.7N 113.8W 999 mb at 2 PM PDT moving WNW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Guillermo will move to 19.0N 115.7W Mon morning, 19.1N 118.4W Mon afternoon, 19.0N 121.3W Tue morning, 19.0N 124.2W Tue afternoon, 18.9N 127.1W Wed morning, and 18.6N 129.8W Wed afternoon. Guillermo should change little in intensity as it moves to near 18.2N 135.0W Thu afternoon. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge over the Gulf of Mexico will force fresh to strong N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight and Monday night before weakening Tuesday. Elsewhere, tranquil conditions will prevail in the wake of Guillermo for the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure over the NW Caribbean is helping to funnel fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region today. Elsewhere winds over the Central American and Equatorial Pacific offshore waters are moderate or weaker. Seas are 4-7 ft, primarily from long-period SW swell. For the forecast, high pressure over the NW Caribbean will help funnel fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region tonight and Monday night before weakening Tuesday. Elsewhere, winds will be quiescent over the waters for the next several days. Little change in the seas should occur. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Felicia and Tropical Storm Guillermo. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends across the northern waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge along with lower pressures over the ITCZ/monsoon trough are forcing moderate to fresh NE trades. South of the monsoon trough west of 110W, there are moderate to fresh SE winds. Except in the vicinity of Felicia and Guillermo, seas are 6-8 ft south of 20N, primarily due to SW swell. Seas are 5-7 ft north of 20N, aided by some NW swell. In the forecast away from Felicia and Guillermo, the NE trades should change little, while the SE winds south of the monsoon trough should diminish some by Tuesday. Likewise, seas south of 20N should lower slightly beginning on Tuesday. $$ Landsea