000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180855 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Jul 18 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0720 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Felicia is centered near 15.5N 127.1W at 18/0900 UTC moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted within 45 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted elsewhere within 75 nm of the center, except within 120 nm in the northeast quadrant. Peak seas are currently around 25 ft. Felicia is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slight weakening is forecast today, followed by a faster rate of weakening on Mon and Tue. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Guillermo is centered near 17.6N 111.6W at 18/0900 UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 19N112W to 19N109W to 16N108W to 14N111W to 16N114W to 19N112W. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere between 150 nm and 360 nm in the southeast semicircle of Guillermo. Peak seas are currently around 13 ft. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, but a weakening trend should begin by Mon night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 83W, from 01N northward to near the Costa Rica/Panama border and into the western Caribbean, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 77W and 83W. A tropical wave is near 94W/95W to from 02N northward to across southeast Mexico and continuing northward across the Gulf of Mexico, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 17N between 94W and 98W, including across the Tehuantepec region. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 05N between 89W and 99W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 07N89W to 16N106W, then resumes south-southwest of Guillermo from 13N111W to 12N115W to 14N123W, then resumes southwest of Felicia from 11N129W to 10N140W. Other than the convection associated with Hurricane Felicia, Tropical Storm Guillermo, and the tropical waves, all described in the sections above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm either side of the axis between 117W and 123W, and from 09N to 11N between 135W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Guillermo. Otherwise, fresh to strong northerly gap winds flow across the Tehuantepec region. Seas in this region are 5 to 8 ft. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere off southern Mexico, with 4 to 7 ft seas primarily in SW swell. Farther north, a weak ridge west of the offshore forecast waters of Baja California is maintaining gentle to moderate NW-N winds, with the highest winds funneling along the coast. Seas are 4 to 6 ft off Baja California in a mix of long period S and NW swell. Moderate southerly flow is noted in the Gulf of California, with seas of 3 ft or less. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Guillermo will move to 18.0N 113.1W this afternoon, 18.4N 115.5W Mon morning, 18.7N 118.2W Mon afternoon, 18.7N 120.9W Tue morning, 18.7N 123.8W Tue afternoon, and 18.5N 126.8W Wed morning. Guillermo will weaken to a tropical depression near 18.0N 132.0W early Thu. Fresh to strong gap winds will pulse at mainly at night in the Tehuantepec region through the early part of the week. In the Gulf of California, intermittent moderate to fresh SE winds are possible through the remainder of the weekend, and then again toward the end of the week as wind is drawn toward low pressure in the southeastern U.S.A. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. A moderate NW swell may build west of Baja California Norte toward the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong offshore winds are noted in the Papagayo region with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southerly flow is south of the monsoon trough. Seas are mainly in the 4 to 7 ft range. For the forecast, generally fresh NE to E winds will prevail across the Papagayo region, pulsing to strong during the late night and early morning hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail south of the monsoon trough while light to gentle breezes are expected north of it. A moderate southerly swell may approach the waters offshore of Ecuador toward the end of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Felicia and Tropical Storm Guillermo. Elsewhere, a broad ridge dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh NE winds with 5 to 8 ft seas in mixed swell are prominent north of the monsoon trough and west of 130W, with mainly gentle to moderate winds north of the monsoon trough and east of 130W. SE to S winds and southerly swell of 5 to 8 ft prevail south of the monsoon trough west of the Galapagos. For the forecast, little change in marine conditions is expected through the middle of the week, outside of Hurricane Felicia and Tropical Storm Guillermo described in the Special Features section above. $$ Lewitsky