000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180254 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Jul 18 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Felicia is centered near 15.2N 126.1W at 18/0300 UTC moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted within 30 nm of the center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere within 75 nm of the center, and in a band between 90 nm and 210 nm in the northwest semicircle. Peak seas are currently around 24 ft. Felicia is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slight weakening is forecast by the end of the weekend, and a faster rate of weakening is expected on Mon and Tue. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Guillermo is centered near 17.5N 111.1W at 18/0300 UTC moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm in the southwest semicircle, and within 19N110W to 20N106W to 14N102W to 10N114W to 13N120W to 16N117W to 13N111W to 16N108W to 19N110W. Peak seas are currently around 11 ft. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or so. A weakening trend should begin by Mon night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 82W, from 01N northward to across western Panama and into the western Caribbean, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 78W and 90W. A tropical wave is near 93W to from 02N northward to near the Guatemala-Mexico border, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 92W and 94W. Additional convection is located inland from southeast Mexico to across western Guatemala. A tropical wave that was near 116W has become ill-defined, becoming incorporated into nearby Tropical Storm Guillermo. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 06N92W to 16N105W, then resumes south-southwest of Guillermo from 14N110W to 13N121W, then resumes southwest of Felicia from 11N128W to 10N140W. Other than the convection associated with Hurricane Felicia, Tropical Storm Guillermo, and tropical waves, all described in the sections above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 14N between 137W and 139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Guillermo. Otherwise, fresh to strong northerly gap winds flow across the Tehuantepec region. Seas in this region are 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere off southern Mexico, with 4 to 7 ft seas primarily in SW swell. Farther north, a weak ridge is west of the offshore forecast waters of Baja California is maintaining gentle to moderate NW-N winds, with the highest winds funneling along the coast. Seas are 4 to 6 ft off Baja California in a mix of S and NW swell. In the Gulf of California, intermittent moderate to fresh SE winds are possible through the remainder of the weekend as wind is drawn toward low pressure in the southeastern U.S.A. For the forecast, tropical Storm Guillermo near 17.5N 111.1W 1004 mb at 8 PM PDT moving WNW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Guillermo will move to 17.9N 112.6W Sun morning, 18.3N 114.8W Sun evening, 18.5N 117.4W Mon morning, 18.7N 120.1W Mon evening, 18.6N 122.9W Tue morning, and 18.4N 125.5W Tue evening. Guillermo will weaken to a tropical depression near 17.9N 130.7W late Wed. Fresh to strong gap winds will pulse at mainly at night in the Tehuantepec region into early next week. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. A moderate NW swell may build west of Baja California Norte toward the end of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong offshore winds are noted in the Papagayo region with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southerly flow is south of the monsoon trough. Seas are mainly in the 4 to 7 ft range. For the forecast, generally fresh NE to E winds will prevail across the Papagayo region, pulsing to strong during the late night and early morning hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail south of the monsoon trough while light to gentle breezes are expected north of it. A moderate southerly swell may approach the waters offshore of Ecuador toward the end of next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Felicia and Tropical Storm Guillermo. Elsewhere, a broad ridge dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh NE winds with 5 to 8 ft seas in mixed swell are prominent north of the monsoon trough and west of 130W, with gentle to moderate winds north of the monsoon trough and east of 130W. SE to S winds and southerly swell of 5 to 8 ft prevail south of the monsoon trough west of the Galapagos. For the forecast, little change in marine conditions is expected through early next week outside of Hurricane Felicia and Tropical Storm Guillermo, described in the Special Features section above. $$ Lewitsky