000 AXPZ20 KNHC 172124 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Jul 17 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Felicia is centered near 14.9N 125.3W at 17/2100 UTC moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center of Felicia, with scattered moderate elsewhere within 90 nm of the center. Peak seas are currently around 30 ft. Felicia is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slight weakening is forecast by tonight, with more rapid weakening expected after this weekend. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. Newly-upgraded Tropical Storm Guillermo is centered near 17.1N 110.1W at 17/2100 UTC moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 180 nm of the center, and along a band that stretches from 15N to 19N between 103W and 110W. Current seas are 8 to 11 ft. Into early next week, environmental conditions are favorable for gradually strengthening. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is noted along 81W, extending N into the SW Caribbean. It is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N, E of 87W. A tropical wave is near 92W to from around 04N to the Guatemala- Mexico border, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N from 87W to 93W. A tropical wave is near 116W from 08N northward to around 21N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 112W and 119W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 10N79W in Panama to 12N95W to 16N105W. It then resumes beyond newly-upgraded Tropical Storm Guillermo near 13N111W and continues to 12N119W. Then, west of Hurricane Felicia, it is located from 11N127W to 09N134W. Finally, the ITCZ begins and 09N134W and continues beyond 09N140W. Convection along these features is mainly associated with Hurricane Felicia, Tropical Storm Guillermo, and tropical waves, all described in the sections above. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section for information on newly upgraded Tropical Storm Guillermo. Otherwise, fresh N gap winds flow across the Tehuantepec region. Seas in this region are 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere off southern Mexico, with 4 to 7 ft seas primarily in SW swell. Farther north, a weak ridge is west of the offshore forecast waters of Baja California is maintaining gentle to moderate NW-N winds, with the highest winds funneling along the coast. Seas are 4 to 6 ft off Baja California in a mix of S and NW swell. In the Gulf of California, intermittent moderate SE winds are possible as wind is drawn toward low pressure in the southeastern U.S.A. For the forecast, newly-upgraded Tropical Storm Guillermo near 17.1N 110.1W 1004 mb at 2 PM PDT moving WNW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Guillermo will move to 17.6N 111.7W Sun morning, 18.0N 113.9W Sun afternoon, 18.3N 116.2W Mon morning, 18.4N 118.7W Mon afternoon, 18.5N 121.2W Tue morning, and 18.4N 123.8W Tue afternoon. Fresh to strong gap winds will pulse at night in the Tehuantepec region. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong offshore winds are noted in the Papagayo region with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southerly flow is south of the monsoon trough. Seas are mainly in the 4 to 7 ft range. For the forecast, generally fresh NE to E winds will prevail across the Papagayo region, pulsing to strong during the late night and early morning hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail south of the monsoon trough while light to gentle breezes are expected north of it. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Felicia and newly-upgraded Tropical Storm Guillermo. Elsewhere, a broad ridge dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh NE winds with 5 to 8 ft seas in mixed swell are prominent north of the monsoon trough and west of 125W, with gentle to moderate winds north of the monsoon trough and east of 125W. SE to S winds and southerly swell of 5 to 8 ft prevail south of the monsoon trough west of the Galapagos. For the forecast, little change in marine conditions is expected through early next week outside of Hurricane Felicia and Tropical Storm Guillermo, described in the Special Features section above behind it. $$ KONARIK