000 AXPZ20 KNHC 171538 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jul 17 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Felicia is centered near 14.6N 124.6W at 17/1500 UTC moving W at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center of Felicia, with scattered moderate elsewhere within 90 nm of the center. Peak seas are currently around 28 ft. Felicia is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slight weakening is forecast by tonight, with more rapid weakening expected after this weekend. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. Newly-formed Tropical Depression Seven-E is centered near 16.8N 109.2W at 17/1500 UTC moving WNW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center in the east semicircle and within 150 nm in the west semicircle. Similar convection is in a band elsewhere from 16N to 19N between 103W and 110W. Current seas are 8 to 11 ft. Through the weekend, environmental conditions are favorable for strengthening, before the depression should stop strengthening early next week. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is just entering the area along 79W, extending N into the Caribbean. It is moving W around 15 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N, E of 83W. A tropical wave is near 90W to from around 04N to Guatemala, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 84W and 90W, and from 04N to 06N between 90W and 95W, from 11N to 14N between 87W and 91W, and from 12N to 14N between 87W and 91W. A tropical wave is near 114W from 08N northward to around 21N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 16N between 111W and 118W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 10N79W in Panama to 13N95W to 16N105W. It then resumes beyond newly-formed Tropical Depression Seven-E near 13N111W and continues to 12N118W. Then, west of Hurricane Felicia, it is located from 11N127W to 09N134W. Finally, the ITCZ begins and 09N134W and continues beyond 09N140W. Convection along these features is mainly associated with Hurricane Felicia, Tropical Depression Seven-E, and tropical waves, all described in the sections above. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section for information on newly formed Tropical Depression Seven-E. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong N gap winds flow across the Tehuantepec region. Seas in this region are 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere off southern Mexico, with 4 to 7 ft seas primarily in SW swell. Farther north, a weak ridge is west of the offshore forecast waters of Baja California is maintaining gentle to moderate NW-N winds, with the highest winds funneling along the coast. Seas are 4 to 6 ft off Baja California in a mix of S and NW swell. Also some intermittent moderate SE winds are possible in the far northern Gulf of California as the wind is drawn toward low pressure in the southwestern U.S.A. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Seven-E is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm and track WNW to just S and W of the Revillagigedo Islands through early Mon. This will likely bring increasing winds and building seas to the offshore waters from Oaxaca to Jalisco through late tonight, and into the Revillagigedo Islands tonight through early Mon. Fresh to strong gap winds will pulse at night in the Tehuantepec region. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong offshore winds are noted in the Papagayo region with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southerly flow is south of the monsoon trough. Seas are mainly in the 4 to 7 ft range in southerly swell across the waters, except 6 to 8 ft offshore of Ecuador and in the Papagayo region. For the forecast, generally fresh NE to E winds will prevail across the Papagayo region, pulsing to strong during the late night and early morning hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail south of the monsoon trough while light to gentle breezes are expected north of it. A moderate swell from the Southern Hemisphere will continue to propagate across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands today. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Felicia and newly formed Tropical Depression Seven-E. Elsewhere, a broad ridge dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh NE winds with 5 to 8 ft seas in mixed swell are prominent north of the monsoon trough and west of 125W, with gentle to moderate winds north of the monsoon trough and east of 125W. SE to S winds and southerly swell of 5 to 8 ft prevail south of the monsoon trough west of the Galapagos. For the forecast, little change in marine conditions is expected through early next week outside of Hurricane Felicia and Tropical Depression Seven-E, described in the Special Features section above behind it. $$ KONARIK