000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170859 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Jul 17 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0710 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Felicia is centered near 14.5N 123.9W at 17/0900 UTC moving WSW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted within 45 nm of the center of Felicia, with scattered moderate elsewhere within 75 nm of the center. Peak seas are currently around 31 ft. Felicia is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Very gradual weakening is forecast over the weekend with a faster rate of weakening expected by early next week. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred nm southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico are gradually becoming better organized. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 75 nm of the center in the east semicircle and within 135 nm in the west semicircle. Similar convection is in a band elsewhere from 16N to 19N between 100W and 108W. Current winds are 20 to 30 kt and are forecast to reach gale force by this evening with a Gale Warning in effect. Current seas are 8 to 11 ft. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today and move west- northwestward to westward at around 15 kt, a few hundred nm offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Based on the latest Tropical Weather Outlook, this system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at: www.hurricanes.gov for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is east of the area near 76W across central and western Colombia, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 09N between 77W and 81W, including across inland portions of Colombia. A tropical wave is near 89W from 04N northward to across El Salvador, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 84W and 90W, and from 04N to 06N between 90W and 95W, from 11N to 14N between 87W and 91W, and from 12N to 14N between 87W and 91W. A tropical wave is near 112W from 08N northward to around 21N near the Revillagigedo Islands, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted in clusters from 09N to 16N between 111W and 118W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 13N95W to 1007 mb low pressure near 15.5N108W to 10N116W, then resumes west-southwest of Hurricane Felicia from 11N126W to 12N136W to 10N140W. In addition to the convection related to the tropical waves and Hurricane Felicia, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03.4S to 01N between 82W and 86W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for information on low pressure forming well south of southern Mexico that has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong N gap winds flow across the Tehuantepec region. Seas in this region are 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere off southern Mexico, with 4 to 7 ft seas primarily in SW swell. Farther north, a weak ridge is west of the offshore forecast waters of Baja California is maintaining gentle to moderate NW-N winds, with the highest winds funneling along the coast. Seas are 4 to 6 ft off Baja California in a mix of S and NW swell. Also some intermittent moderate SE winds are possible in the far northern Gulf of California as the wind is drawn toward low pressure in the southwestern U.S.A. For the forecast, the broad area of low pressure southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico is gradually becoming better organized. The low is forecast to move west-northwest to westward toward the Revillagigedo Islands through early Mon. This may bring increasing winds and building seas to the offshore waters from Oaxaca to Jalisco through late Sat, and into the Revillagigedo Islands Sat night through early Mon. This low has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation and a gale warning is in effect. Fresh to strong gap winds will pulse at night in the Tehuantepec region. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong offshore winds are noted in the Papagayo region with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southerly flow is south of the monsoon trough. Seas are mainly in the 4 to 7 ft range in southerly swell across the waters, except 6 to 8 ft offshore of Ecuador and in the Papagayo region. For the forecast, generally fresh NE to E winds will prevail across the Papagayo region, pulsing to strong during the late night and early morning hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail south of the monsoon trough while light to gentle breezes are expected north of it. A moderate swell from the Southern Hemisphere will continue to propagate across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands today. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Felicia and on low pressure forming well south of southern Mexico. Elsewhere, a broad ridge dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh NE winds with 5 to 8 ft seas in mixed swell are prominent north of the monsoon trough and west of 125W, with gentle to moderate winds north of the monsoon trough and east of 125W. SE to S winds and southerly swell of 5 to 8 ft prevail south of the monsoon trough west of the Galapagos. For the forecast, little change in marine conditions is expected through early next week outside of Felicia and a potential low, described in the Special Features section above behind it. $$ Lewitsky