000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170240 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jul 17 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0220 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Felicia is centered near 14.8N 123.2W at 17/0300 UTC moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted within 45 nm of the center, with scattered moderate to strong convection elsewhere within 75 nm of the center, except within 90 nm in the southeast quadrant. Peak seas are currently around 31 ft. Felicia remains a powerful category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are possible tonight, before a gradual weakening trend commences this weekend. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred nm south of the coast of southwestern Mexico are gradually becoming better organized. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 19N between 100W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 101W and 109W. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form tonight or on Sat and move west- northwestward to westward at around 15 kt, a few hundred nm offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Current winds are 20 to 30 kt and are forecast to reach gale force by 24 hours with a Gale Warning now issued. Current seas are 8 to 11 ft. Based on the latest Tropical Weather Outlook, this system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at: www.hurricanes.gov for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is east of the area near 74W/75W across central Colombia, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 07N east of 80W including across inland portions of Colombia. A tropical wave is near 88W from 02N northward to across Honduras near the Gulf of Fonseca, moving W at around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 09N between 82W and 89W. A tropical wave is near 111W from 01N northward to around 21N near the Revillagigedo Islands, moving W at around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 18N between 111W and 118W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 10N86W to 1007 mb low pressure near 15N105W to 14N118W, then resumes west-southwest of Hurricane Felicia from 12N127W to 10N140W. In addition to the convection related to the tropical waves and Hurricane Felicia, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 06N between 92W and 94W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for information on low pressure forming well south of southern Mexico that has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong N gap winds flow across the Tehuantepec region. Seas in this region are 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere off southern Mexico, with 4 to 7 ft seas primarily in SW swell. Farther north, a weak ridge is west of the offshore forecast waters of Baja California is maintaining gentle to moderate NW-N winds prevail, with the highest winds funneling along the coast south of Punta Eugenia. Seas are 4 to 6 ft off Baja California in a mix of S and NW swell. Also some intermittent moderate SE winds are possible in the far northern Gulf of California as the wind is drawn toward low pressure in the southwestern U.S.A. For the forecast, the broad area of low pressure south of the coast of southwestern Mexico is gradually becoming better organized. The low is forecast to move west-northwest to westward toward the Revillagigedo Islands through early Mon. This may bring increasing winds and building seas to the offshore waters from Oaxaca to Jalisco through late Sat, and into the Revillagigedo Islands Sat night through early Mon. This low has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation. Fresh to strong gap winds will pulse at night in the Tehuantepec region. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong offshore winds are noted in the Papagayo region with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southerly flow is south of the monsoon trough. Seas are mainly in the 4 to 7 ft range in southerly swell across the waters, except 6 to 8 ft offshore of Ecuador and in the Papagayo region. For the forecast, generally fresh NE to E winds will prevail across the Papagayo region, pulsing to strong during the late night and early morning hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail south of the monsoon trough while light to gentle breezes are expected north of it. A moderate swell from the Southern Hemisphere will continue to propagate across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands tonight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Felicia and on low pressure forming well south of southern Mexico. Elsewhere, a broad ridge dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh NE winds with 5 to 8 ft seas in mixed swell are prominent north of the monsoon trough and west of 125W, with gentle to moderate winds north of the monsoon trough and east of 125W. SE to S winds and southerly swell of 5 to 8 ft prevail south of the monsoon trough west of the Galapagos. For the forecast, little change in marine conditions is expected through early next week outside of Felicia and a potential low, described in the Special Features section above behind it. $$ Lewitsky