000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160848 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jul 16 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0710 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Felicia is centered near 15.1N 121.0W at 16/0900 UTC moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Numerous moderate to strong within 75 nm of the center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 122W and 125W. Peak seas are currently at 24 ft. Felicia is now category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and additional strengthening is forecast today. This will be followed by a very gradual weakening trend through the end of the weekend. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico along a tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Clusters of moderate convection are from 09N to 20N between 97W and 111W. Associated winds are currently 20 to 25 kt along with 8 to 9 ft seas. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for gradual development during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend and move westward or west-northwestward at around 15 kt, a few hundred miles offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Based on the latest Tropical Weather Outlook, this system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at: www.hurricanes.gov for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 82W from 02N northward to across western Panama and into the western Caribbean Sea, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 77W and 82W. A tropical wave is near 107W from 01N northward to near Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection is described above in the Special Features section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 09N82W to 12N95W to 11N105W to 13N114W, then resumes west- southwest of Hurricane Felicia from 14N125W to 13N140W. In addition to the convection related to the tropical waves and Hurricane Felicia, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 83W and 85W, from 05N to 10N between 94W and 98W, from 07N to 11N between 112W and 118W, and from 13N to 15N between 136W and 138W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 127W and 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for information on low pressure forming well south of southern Mexico that has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours. Otherwise, fresh N to NE gap winds flow across the Tehuantepec region. Seas in this region are 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere off southern Mexico, with 4 to 7 ft seas primarily in SW swell. Farther north, a weak ridge is west of the offshore forecast waters of Baja California is maintaining gentle to moderate NW-N winds prevail, with the highest winds funneling along the coast south of Punta Eugenia. Seas are 4 to 6 ft off Baja California in a mix of S and NW swell. Also some intermittent moderate SE winds are possible in the far northern Gulf of California as the wind is drawn toward low pressure in the southwestern U.S.A. For the forecast, low pressure is developing several hundred nautical miles S of southern Mexico. This low is expected to move W or WNW toward the Revillagigedo Islands through early Mon. This may bring increasing winds and building seas to the offshore waters from Oaxaca to Jalisco through late Sat, and into the Revillagigedo Islands Sat night through early Mon. Farther north, gentle to moderate winds will persist with slight to moderate seas. Fresh gap winds will pulse at night in the Tehuantepec region, with pulses increasing to strong late in the weekend into early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong offshore winds are noted in the Papagayo region with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southerly flow is south of the monsoon trough. Seas are mainly in the 4 to 7 ft range in southerly swell across the waters, except 6 to 8 ft offshore of Ecuador. For the forecast, generally fresh NE to E winds will prevail across the Papagayo region, pulsing to strong during the late night and early morning hours through early next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail south of the monsoon trough while light to gentle breezes are expected north of it. A moderate swell from the Southern Hemisphere will continue to propagate across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through today. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Felicia and on low pressure forming well south of southern Mexico. Elsewhere, a broad ridge dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh NE winds with 5 to 8 ft seas in mixed swell are prominent north of the monsoon trough and west of 125W, with gentle to moderate winds north of the monsoon trough and east of 125W. SE to S winds and southerly swell of 5 to 7 ft prevail south of the monsoon trough west of the Galapagos. For the forecast, little change in marine conditions is expected through the upcoming weekend and into early next week outside of Felicia and a potential low, described in the Special Features section above behind it. $$ Lewitsky