000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160309 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jul 15 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Felicia is centered near 15.2N 120.2W at 16/0300 UTC moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 75 to 90 nm of the center of Felicia. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 120W and 125W. Additional strengthening is expected tonight, and Felicia is forecast to become a major hurricane overnight. Some slow weakening is possible by this weekend. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. A broad area of low pressure along a tropical wave located several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Winds are currently 20 to 25 kt and seas 8 to 9 ft. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for gradual development during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend and move westward or west-northwestward at around 15 kt, a few hundred nautical miles offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Based on the latest Tropical Weather Outlook, this system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at: www.hurricanes.gov for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 90W from the coast of Ecuador near 01N northward to across Panama, moving W at around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 78W and 82W. A tropical wave is near 106W from 01N northward to near Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 17N between 100W and 108W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N73W to 06N80W to 10N100W to 13N114W, then resumes west-southwest of Felicia near 14N125W to 10N140W. In addition to the convection related to the tropical waves and Hurricane Felicia, scattered moderate convection is noted within 16N100W to 14N94W to 07N90W to 04N90W to 08N100W to 16N100W, from 07N to 16N between 108W and 115W, from 08N to 10N between 115W and 119W, with clusters of similar convection from 12N to 16N between 127W and 139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for information on low pressure forming well south of southern Mexico that has a high chance of tropical development over the next 5 days. Otherwise, fresh N to NE gap winds continue to flow across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas in this region are 6 to 7 ft. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere off southern Mexico, with 4 to 7 ft seas primarily in SW swell. Farther north, a weak ridge is west of the offshore forecast waters of Baja California is maintaining light to gentle breezes, except for possible moderate NW winds funneling along the coast south of Punta Eugenia. Seas are 3 to 5 ft off Baja California in a mix of S and NW swell. Also some intermittent moderate SE winds are possible in the far northern Gulf of California as the wind is drawn toward low pressure in the southwestern U.S.A. For the forecast, fresh gap winds will diminish into Fri in the Gulf of Tehunatepec, then return Sat night, pulsing to strong Sun night through Mon. Low pressure is developing several hundred nm S of southern Mexico, just outside forecast waters. This low is expected to move W or WNW toward the Revillagigedo Islands through Sun night. This may bring increasing winds and building seas to the offshore waters from Oaxaca to Jalisco through late Sat, and into the Revillagigedo Islands Sat night through Sun night. Farther north, gentle to moderate winds will persist with slight to moderate seas. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh offshore winds are noted in the Papagayo region with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southerly flow is south of the monsoon trough. Seas are mainly in the 4 to 7 ft range in southerly swell across the waters, except 6 to 8 ft offshore of Ecuador. For the forecast, generally fresh NE to E winds will prevail across the Papagayo region, but wind may pulse to strong Sun night into Mon night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail south of the monsoon trough while light to gentle breezes are expected north of it. A moderate swell from the Southern Hemisphere will continue to propagate across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Felicia and on low pressure forming well south of southern Mexico. Elsewhere, a broad ridge dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. Moderate to fresh NE winds with 5 to 8 ft seas in mixed swell are prominent north of the monsoon trough and west of 125W, with gentle to moderate winds north of the monsoon trough and east of 125W. SE to S winds and southerly swell of 5 to 7 ft previal south of the monsoon trough west of the Galapagos. For the forecast, little change in marine conditions is expected through the upcoming weekend and into early next week outside of Felicia and a potential low, described in the Special Features section above, behind it. $$ Lewitsky