991 AXPZ20 KNHC 152135 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jul 15 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Felicia is centered near 15.2N 119.4W at 15/2100 UTC moving W at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the center. Seas to 12 ft extend as far as 120 nm N semicircle and 90 nm S semicircle. Felicia is expected to gradually turn WSW into the weekend, then return to the westward motion early next week. Hurricane Felicia is forecast to continue strengthening into Saturday, when it will reach around 125W. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. Broad low pressure is forming in association with a tropical wave about 500 miles S of the coast of southern Mexico. An area of disorganized, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 92W and 102W. Environmental conditions are conductive for gradual development over the next several days and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico, while the system moves W or WNW at 10 to 15 kt. Based on the latest Tropical Weather Outlook, this system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at: www.hurricanes.gov for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends along 105W from 06N to near the Colima Jalisco border on the coast of Mexico. It is moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 17N between 102W and 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from eastern Panama near 09N78W to 09N95W to 13N113W, then resumes west of Hurricane Felicia near 14N122W to 10N140W. In addition to the convection related to the tropical waves and Hurricane Felicia, scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 112W and 115W and from from 10N to 15N between 127W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for information on low pressure forming well S of southern Mexico that has a high chance of tropical development over the next 5 days. Fresh N to NE gap winds continue to flow across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas in this region are 8 to 10 ft. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere off southern Mexico, with 4 to 6 ft seas primarily in SW swell. Farther north, a weak ridge is west of the offshore forecast waters of Baja California is maintaining light to gentle breezes, except for possible moderate NW winds funneling along the coast south of Punta Eugenia. Seas are 3 to 5 ft off Baja California in a mix of S and NW swell. Also some intermittent moderate SE winds are possible in the far N Gulf of California as the wind is drawn toward low pressure in the SW U.S. For the forecast, low pressure will gradually develop just outside the offshore waters off southern Mexico Fri, then move W or W-NW toward the Revillagigedo Islands through the weekend. This may bring strong SE winds and building seas to the offshore waters from Oaxaca to Jalisco through late Sat, and into the Revillagigedo Islands Sat night through Sun night. Farther north, gentle to moderate winds will persist with slight to moderate seas. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh offshore winds are noted in the Papagayo region with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southerly flow is south of the monsoon trough. Seas are mainly in the 5 to 8 ft range in southerly swell across the waters, except 8 to 10 ft offshore of Ecuador. For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds will continue to pulse across the Papagayo region, pulsing to fresh to strong Sun into Mon night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail south of the monsoon trough while light to gentle breezes are expected north of it. A moderate swell from the Southern Hemisphere will continue to propagate across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Felicia. Elsewhere, a broad ridge dominates the waters north of 20N and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate NE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed swell are prominent north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, with SE to S winds and southerly swell of 5 to 8 ft south of the monsoon trough west of the Galapagos. For the forecast, little change in marine conditions is expected through the upcoming weekend and into early next week outside of Felicia and a potential low, described in the Special Features section above, behind it. $$ KONARIK