000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151530 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Jul 15 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Felicia is centered near 15.2N 118.6W at 15/1500 UTC moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the center. Seas to 12 ft extend as far as 120 nm N semicircle and 60 nm S semicircle. Felicia is expected to gradually turn WSW into the weekend, then return to the westward motion early next week. Hurricane Felicia is forecast to continue strengthening into Saturday, when it will reach around 125W. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. A tropical wave extends along 96W from 06N northward to the Gulf of Tehunatepec, moving W at 15 kt. A broad area of disorganized, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 91W and 97W. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico while the system moves westward or west-northwestward. Based on the latest Tropical Weather Outlook, this system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at: www.hurricanes.gov for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Please see Special Features section above for details on a tropical wave along 96W that has a high potential for tropical development in the next 5 days. A tropical wave extends along 104W from 06N northward to the Coliman coast of Mexico, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 17N between 100W and 107W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from eastern Panama near 09N78W to 09N90W to 13N111W, then resumes west of Hurricane Felicia near 13N121W to 10N140W. In addition to the convection related to the tropical waves and Hurricane Felicia, scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 90W and 102W, from 08N to 10N between 112W and 115W, and from from 11N to 13N between 132W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong N to NE gap winds continue to flow across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. As the tropical wave, described in the Special Features section above, moves W of the area later today, winds will begin to subside. Seas in this region are 8 to 10 ft. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere off southern Mexico, with 4 to 6 ft seas primarily in SW swell. Farther north, a weak ridge is west of the offshore forecast waters of Baja California is maintaining light to gentle breezes, except for possible moderate NW winds funneling along the coast south of Punta Eugenia. Seas are 3 to 5 ft off Baja California in a mix of S and NW swell. For the forecast, low pressure is expected to develop just outside the offshore waters off southern Mexico Fri, then move W or W-NW toward the Revillagigedo Islands through Sun. This may bring strong SE winds and building seas to the offshore waters from Oaxaca to Jalisco through late Sat, and into the Revillagigedo Islands Sat night through Sun night. Farther north, gentle to moderate winds will persist with slight to moderate seas. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh offshore winds are noted in the Papagayo region this morning, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southerly flow is south of the monsoon trough. Seas are mainly in the 5 to 8 ft range in southerly swell across the waters, except 8 to 10 ft offshore of Ecuador. For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds will continue to pulse across the Papagayo region, pulsing to fresh to strong again Sat night through Mon night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail south of the monsoon trough while light to gentle breezes are expected north of it. A moderate swell from the Southern Hemisphere will continue to propagate across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for details on recently upgraded Hurricane Felicia. Also, please see the Special Features section above for information on low pressure that is expected to form in association with a tropical wave well south of Mexico later this week. Elsewhere, a broad ridge dominates the waters north of 20N and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate NE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed swell are prominent north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, with SE to S winds and southerly swell of 5 to 8 ft south of the monsoon trough west of the Galapagos. For the forecast, little change in marine conditions is expected through the upcoming weekend and into early next week outside of Felicia and the potential low behind it. $$ KONARIK