200 AXPZ20 KNHC 150922 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Jul 15 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Felicia is centered near 15.2N 117.5W at 15/0900 UTC moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm in the northeast semicircle of Felicia, and within 120 nm in the southwest semicircle of the storm. Seas to 12 ft extend as far 90 nm in the northeast semicircle of the center, and within 30 nm in the southwest semicircle. Felicia is expected to intensify through Sat as it continues to move generally westward, reaching 125W by midday Sat and 130W by late Sun. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends along 93W from 06N northward toward the southern Mexico. The wave is moving W around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 90W and 95W. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico while the system moves westward or west-northwestward. Based on the latest Tropical Weather Outlook, this system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at: www.hurricanes.gov for details. A tropical wave extends along 103W/104W from 06N northward to near the Michoacan coast of Mexico. The wave is moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 17N between 100W and 104W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from eastern Panama near 09N78W to 08N80W to 13N110W, then resumes west of Hurricane Felicia near 13N120W to 1011 mb low pressure near 12N126W to 10N140W. In addition to the convection related to the tropical waves and Hurricane Felicia, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 90W and 102W, from 08N to 10N between 112W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 11N to 13N between 132W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Tropical Wave section above for information on the potential for low pressure to form in association with a tropical wave later this week into the weekend, well SW of southern Mexico. A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong N to NE gap winds flowing into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This activity is ahead of the approaching tropical wave mentioned above in the Tropical Wave section. An earlier altimeter satellite pass showed seas downstream of the Gulf reaching 8 to 10 ft seas, likely with a component of longer period southerly swell. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere off southern Mexico, with 4 to 6 ft seas primarily in SW swell. Farther north, a weak ridge is west of the offshore forecast waters of Baja California is maintaining light to gentle breezes, except for possible moderate NW winds funneling along the coast south of Punta Eugenia. Seas are 3 to 5 ft off Baja California in a mix of S and NW swell. For the forecast,the fresh to strong gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish later this morning. Low pressure is expected to develop just outside the offshore waters off southern Mexico Fri, then move W or W-NW toward the Revillagigedo Islands through Sun. This may bring strong SE winds and building seas to the offshore waters from Oaxaca to Jalisco through late Sat, and into the Revillagigedo Islands Sat night through Sun night. Farther north, gentle to moderate winds will persist with slight to moderate seas. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh offshore winds are noted in the Papagayo region this morning, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southerly flow is south of the monsoon trough. Seas are mainly in the 5 to 8 ft range in southerly swell across the waters, except 8 to 10 ft offshore of Ecuador. For the forecast, Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will continue to pulse across the Papagayo region, pulsing to fresh to strong Sat night through Mon night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail south of the monsoon trough while light to gentle breezes are expected north of it. A moderate swell from the Southern Hemisphere will continue to propagate across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Felicia. Please see Tropical Waves section above for information on low pressure that is expected to form in association with a tropical wave well south of Mexico later this week. Elsewhere, a broad ridge dominates the waters north of 20N and west of 120W. An earlier altimeter satellite pass showed seas to 8 ft, in and area of moderate to fresh NE winds and a mix of NW and S swell, reaching as far south as 29N west of 125W. Gentle to moderate NE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed swell are prominent north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, with SE to S winds and southerly swell of 5 to 8 ft south of the monsoon trough west of the Galapagos. For the forecast, little change in marine conditions is expected through the upcoming weekend and into early next week outside of Felicia and the potential low behind it. $$ Christensen