000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142059 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jul 14 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1920 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Felicia is centered near 14.8N 115.3W at 14/2100 UTC moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are currently to 14 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 17N between 113W and 119W. Felicia will strengthen to a hurricane Thu morning. Felicia is forecast to continue to move west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed through Thu. A turn toward the west is expected by Thu night, and a westward or west-southwestward motion is forecast Fri and Sat. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends along 90W/91W from 05N northward into Guatemala. The wave is moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 89W and 92W. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for the gradual development of low pressure along this tropical wave, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Based on latest Tropical Weather Outlook, this system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at: www.hurricanes.gov for details. A tropical wave extends along 102W from 04N northward to near the southwest coast of Mexico. The wave is moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 16N between 93W and 101W. A tropical wave extends along 139W from 04N to 19N, moving W at around 5 to 10 kt. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 10N100W to 13N112W, then resumes west-southwest of Tropical Storm Felicia near 14N118W to 1011 mb low pressure near 12N136W to 09N139W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves and Tropical Storm Felicia, scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 77W and 82W, from 05N to 11N between 86W and 100W, from 07N to 15N between 100W and 110W, from 08N to 13N between 119W and 128W, and from 09N to 14N between 128W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Tropical Wave section above for information on the potential for low pressure to form in association with a tropical wave later this week into the weekend, well SW of southern Mexico. A weak ridge is west of the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting light to gentle variable winds, except gentle to moderate from and west-southwest of the Revillagigedo Islands due to the outermost fringes of Tropical Storm Felicia west-southwest of the area. Gentle to moderate SE-S flow dominates in the Gulf of California, locally fresh in the northern Gulf, with seas 3 ft or less except to 4 ft in the northern Gulf and near the entrance to the Gulf. Light to gentle winds dominate elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico, except in the Tehuantepec region where fresh to strong N-NE winds continue. Seas are mainly in the 4 to 7 ft range, except 8 to 10 ft in the Tehuantepec region. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient in the region will support light to gentle NW winds over the Baja California offshore waters with locally moderate winds along the coast through Sat. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected through early next week, except for moderate to fresh in the northern Gulf of California through the weekend. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast in the Tehuantepec region through Thu night, resuming Sun night through early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh offshore winds are noted in the Papagayo region this afternoon, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southerly flow is south of the monsoon trough. Seas are mainly in the 5 to 8 ft range in southerly swell across the waters, except 7 to 9 ft offshore of Ecuador. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will continue to pulse across the Papagayo region, pulsing to fresh to strong tonight, and then again Sat night through Mon night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail south of the monsoon trough while light to gentle breezes are expected north of it. A moderate swell from the Southern Hemisphere will continue to propagate across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Thu night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Felicia. Please see Tropical Waves section above for information on low pressure that is expected to form in association with a tropical wave well S of Mexico later this week. Otherwise, 1011 mb low pressure is embedded in the monsoon trough near 12N136W. A surface ridge prevails elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail north of the monsoon trough and west of 125W, with light to gentle trades elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh southerly flow prevails south of the monsoon trough. Seas are mainly in the 5 to 7 ft range, except to 8 ft near 30N between 125W and 135W in northerly swell. For the forecast, little change in marine conditions is expected through the upcoming weekend and into early next week outside of Felicia and the potential low behind it. $$ Lewitsky