949 AXPZ20 KNHC 141534 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jul 14 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Felicia is centered near 14.3N 114.1W at 14/1500 UTC moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted from 12N to 16N between 112W and 117W. Felicia is expected to continue WNW at similar forward speed into Thu, then track WSW and slow in forward speed. Strengthening is forecast for next next couple of days and Felicia is likely to become a hurricane Thu. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends along 89W from 06N northward into El Salvador. The wave is moving W at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is N of 06N between 85W and 92W. Low pressure is forecast to develop in association with this wave south of the southern coast of Mexico late this week and move west at 10 to 15 kt. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Based on latest Tropical Weather Outlook, this system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. A tropical wave extends along 101W from 04N northward into Guerrero, Mexico. The wave is moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is N of 07N between 94W and 104W. A tropical wave extends along 139W from 05N to 18N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 132W and 140W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N92W to 13N110W then resumes W of Tropical Storm Felicia near 13N119W and continues to 11N136W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves and Tropical Storm Felicia, numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 10N to 13N between 125W and 129W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge is west of the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting light to gentle variable winds with seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle winds dominate elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico, except in the Tehuantepec region where strong N-NE winds continue with seas to 10 ft. A weak pressure gradient in the region will support light to gentle NW winds over the Baja California offshore waters with locally moderate winds along the coast through the weekend. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected through Sun, except for moderate to locally fresh SE winds in the northern gulf most of the forecast period. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast in the Tehuantepec region through Wed night, resuming Sat night. Please see Tropical Wave section above for information on the potential for low pressure to form in association with a tropical wave later this week, well S of southern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will continue to pulse across the Papagayo region, increasing to fresh to strong Sat and continuing for the rest of the weekend. Seas will range between 7-8 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail south of the monsoon trough through the weekend, with light to gentle breezes north of the monsoon axis. Large swell from the Southern Hemisphere will continue to propagate across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through today. Seas will continue to be 8-9 ft in this area, reaching as far north as the offshore waters of western Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for details on newly upgraded Tropical Storm Felicia. Tropical Storm Felicia will move to 14.9N 115.9W this evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.4N 117.9W Thu morning, then reach 15.5N 119.5W Thu evening. Hurricane Felicia will be near 15.3N 120.9W Fri morning, 15.0N 122.4W Fri evening, and 14.9N 124.0W Sat morning. Felicia will change little in intensity as it moves to 14.9N 127.6W early Sun. Please see Tropical Waves section above for information on low pressure that is expected to form in association with a tropical wave well S of Mexico later this week. A surface ridge dominates the northern forecast waters and continues to support moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds N of the monsoon trough W of 125W. These conditions will prevail through the end of the weekend into early next week. $$ KONARIK