000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140929 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jul 14 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0920 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Six-E is centered near 14.2N 112.8W at 14/0900 UTC moving WNW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 12N to 16N between 111W and 114W. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. The depression is expected to continue to move WNW with a decrease in forward speed through Thursday night. A turn toward the west is expected on Friday. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and to be near hurricane strength by Friday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends along 86W from 06N northward into Honduras. The wave is moving W at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is N of 07N between 85W and 92W. A tropical wave extends along 99W from 04N northward into SW Mexico. The wave is moving W at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is N of 07N between 93W and 103W. A tropical wave extends along 138W from 05N to 18N, moving W at around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 06N to 15N between 132W and 140W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 10N86W to 10N97W to 13N110W then resumes W of the Tropical Depression Six-E near 13N115W and continues to 12N136W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves and Tropical Depression Six-E, scattered moderate convection is noted N of 05N E of 88W. Otherwise, numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 10N to 13N between 125W and 129W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge is west of the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting light to gentle variable winds with seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle winds dominate elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico, except in the Tehuantepec region where fresh to strong N-NE winds continues with seas to 9 ft. A weak pressure gradient in the region will support light to gentle NW winds over the Baja California offshore waters with locally moderate winds along the coast through the weekend. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected through Sun, except for moderate to locally fresh SE winds in the northern gulf most of the forecast period. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast in the Tehuantepec region through Wed night, resuming Sat night. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of the coast of southern Mexico late this week and move westward at 8 to 13 kt. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Based on latest Tropical Weather Outlook, this system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will continue to pulse across the Papagayo region, increasing to fresh to strong Sat and continuing for the rest of the weekend. Seas will range beteen 7-8 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail south of the monsoon trough through the weekend, with light to gentle breezes north of the monsoon axis. Large swell from the Southern Hemisphere will continue to propagate across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through today. Seas will continue to be 8-9 ft in this area, reaching as far north as the offshore waters of western Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Six-E. Six-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 14.9N 114.8W this afternoon, move to 15.5N 117.1W Thu morning, 15.8N 119.0W Thu afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.7N 120.5W Fri morning, 15.6N 121.9W Fri afternoon, and weaken to a tropical storm near 15.5N 123.3W Sat morning. Six-E will change little in intensity as it moves to the near 15.5N 126.5W early Sun. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of the coast of southern Mexico late this week and move westward at 8 to 13 kt. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Otherwise, a surface ridge dominates the northern forecast waters and continues to support moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds N of the monsoon trough W of 125W. These conditions will prevail through the end of the weekend into early next week. $$ Ramos