000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122144
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jul 12 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1010 mb area of low pressure centered near 10.5N104W continues
to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. A 
tropical wave extends along 104W between 04N and 15N. Environmental
conditions are expected to remain conducive for gradual 
development, and a tropical depression is likely form in two to 
three days well offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico while 
the disturbance moves westward at 10 to 15 kt. At this time, 
scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 
100W and 108W. 

This system has a medium chance for tropical development within
the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave extends along 89W from 02N northward
into northern Central America, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. 
Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave along 
06N. 

The axis of a tropical wave extends along 129W from 04N to 18N, 
moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is where
the wave meets the monsoon trough from 09N to 12N between 125W 
and 132W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough from 09N85W to 09N109W to 1011 mb low pres 
near 13N122W to 10N135W. The ITCZ extends from 10N135W to 
09N140W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves 
and special feature described above, scattered moderate 
convection is from 05N to 15N and E of 99W, and from 05N to 16N 
and W of 111W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California producing gentle to moderate NW-N winds and seas of 
4-6 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere across the 
offshore waters of Mexico, except in the Tehuantepec region where
fresh to strong N-NE winds are noted, with seas to 8 ft. 

For the forecast, a surface ridge will prevail over the next 
several days. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds will prevail through 
midweek, except light to gentle breezes off southern Mexico. In 
the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southerly winds are 
expected over the next several days, with seas of 3 ft or less. 
Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast in the Tehuantepec 
region most of the work week, with seas building to 10 ft 
beginning on Wed.

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop south of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec around midweek and move westward or west-northwestward 
at 10 to 15 kt, well offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. 
Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for development
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by 
late this week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong NE-E winds and seas to 7 ft are noted in
the Papagayo region. Light winds are north of the monsoon trough
with gentle to moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas 
mostly range 5 to 7 ft, with 8 to 9 ft seas between Ecuador and 
the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE-E winds will continue to 
pulse across the Papagayo region through tonight, and then again 
Wed night into Thu. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly flow 
will prevail south of 10N through the week, with light to gentle 
breezes north of 10N. Large swell from the Southern Hemisphere 
will continue to propagate across the waters between Ecuador and 
the Galapagos Islands through at least Wed. Seas will continue to
be 8 to 9 ft in this area, reaching as far north as the offshore
waters of western Panama. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge dominates the northern forecast waters and extends
from a 1030 mb high pressure located near 39N144W. Recent 
satellite derived wind data show gentle to moderate winds on 
either side of the ITCZ/Monsoon trough W of 120W. Seas in that 
area are generally in the 5 to 7 ft range in mixed NE and S 
swell. Trade winds N of the convergence zone are expected to 
relax through Tue as a surface trough drifts westward across the 
region. Moderate to fresh trade winds will return by midweek as 
the trough moves W of the forecast area.

$$
ERA