000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121554
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jul 12 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave extends along 87W north of 02N 
northward into northern Central America, moving W at around 10 
kt. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave along
06N. 

The axis of a tropical wave extends along 106W from 04N to 15N 
and is moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. The wave is accompanied by
a broad area of low pressure. Scattered moderate convection is 
from 08N to 14N between 99W and 107W. Fresh E to SE winds are 
noted mainly on the E side of the wave axis from 10N to 13N 
between 98W and 102W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression 
could form by midweek well offshore the southwestern coast of 
Mexico.

The axis of a tropical wave extends along 128W from 04N to 18N, 
moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
where the wave meets the monsoon trough from 08N to 13N between 
127W and 130W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough from 09N79W to 11N99W to 1010 mb low pres  
near 14N121W to 10N134W. The ITCZ extends from 10N134W to 
09N140W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves 
described above, scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 15N
and E of 98W, and from 06N to 15N and W of 110W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California producing gentle to moderate NW-N winds and seas of 
4-6 ft based on latest altimeter pass. Light to gentle winds are 
noted elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico, except in 
the Tehuantepec region where fresh to strong N-NE winds are 
blowing, with seas to 8 ft. 

For the forecast, a surface ridge will prevail over the next 
several days. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds will prevail through 
midweek, except light to gentle breezes off southern Mexico. In 
the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds
are expected over the next several days, with the exception of 
moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds, with seas of 3-5 ft in the 
northern part of the Gulf. Fresh to strong northerly winds are 
forecast in the Tehuantepec region most of the work week, with 
seas building to 10-11 ft beginning on Wed.

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop south of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec around midweek and move westward or west-northwestward 
at 10 to 15 kt, well offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. 
Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for development
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by 
late this week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong NE-E winds and seas to 7 ft are noted in
the Papagayo region. Light winds are north of the monsoon trough
with gentle to moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas 
mostly range 5 to 7 ft, with 8 to 9 ft seas between Ecuador and 
the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE-E winds will continue to 
pulse across the Papagayo region through tonight, and then again 
Wed night into Thu. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly flow 
will prevail south of 10N through the week, with light to gentle 
breezes north of 10N. Large swell from the Southern Hemisphere 
will continue to propagate across the waters between Ecuador and 
the Galapagos Islands through at least Wed. Seas will continue to
be 8 to 9 ft in this area, reaching as far north as the offshore
waters of western Panama. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge dominates the northern forecast waters and extends
from a 1030 mb high pressure located near 39N143W. Recent 
satellite derived wind data show gentle to moderate winds on 
either side of the ITCZ/Monsoon trough W of 120W. Seas in that 
area are generally in the 5 to 7 ft range in mixed NE and S 
swell. Trade winds N of the convergence zone are expected to 
relax through Tue as a surface trough drifts westward across the 
region. Moderate to fresh trade winds will return by midweek as 
the trough moves W of the forecast area.

$$
ERA