000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120325 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jul 12 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave extends along 85W north of 03N northward into northern Central America, moving W at around 10 kt. The wave is enhancing convection over parts of Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. The axis of a tropical wave extends along 101W from 04N to 15N and is moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 15N between 95W and 105W. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are noted within about 120 nm east of the wave axis. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by midweek well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. The axis of a tropical wave extends along 123W from 04N to 18N, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is the wave meets the monsoon trough from 09N to 11N between 121W and 124W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from western Colombia near 07N78W to 09N90W to 09N100W to 10N110W to 1011 mb low pres located near 14N119W to 11N125W. The ITCZ continues from 11N125W to 09N140W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 11N between 127W and 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW-N winds and seas of 4-6 ft based on latest altimeter pass. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico, except in the Tehuantepec region where fresh to strong N-NE winds are blowing with seas in the 8-9 ft range. For the forecast, a surface ridge will continue to extend over the waters W of Baja California peninsula over the next several days. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds will prevail through midweek. Light to gentle breezes will persist off southern Mexico through midweek. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected over the next several days, with the exception of moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds with seas of 3-5 ft. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast in the Tehuantepec region most of the work week. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec around midweek and move westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, well offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong NE-E winds and seas to 8 ft are noted in the Papagayo region. Light winds are north of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas mostly range 5 to 8 ft, with 8 to 9 ft seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE-E winds will continue to pulse across the Papagayo region through Mon night, and then again Wed night into Thu. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail south of 10N through the week, with light to gentle breezes north of 10N. Cross equatorial SW swell is forecast to continue across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Tue. Seas will continue to be 8 to 9 ft in this area, reaching as far north as the offshore waters of western Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge dominates the northern forecast waters and extends from a 1030 mb high pressure located near 40N140W. across the waters north of the convergence zone. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ/Monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate NE-E winds north of 10N-11N, with moderate to fresh SE-S winds south of it. Seas are generally in the 5 to 7 ft range in mixed NE and S swell. Fresh NE winds and seas of 8 ft are observed over the NW corner of the forecast area, particularly N of 28N W of 132W. These marine conditions will persist through tonight. Trade winds N of the convergence zone are expected to relax through Tue as a trough drifts westward across the region. Moderate to fresh trade winds will return by midweek. $$ GR