000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112134
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jul 11 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave extends along 83W north of 03N 
northward into the western Caribbean, moving W at around 10 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 04N and E of 85W.

The axis of a tropical wave extends along 99W from 04N to 15N 
and is moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 09N and 15N between 95W and 103W. Latest
scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong SE winds within 90 nm
east of the wave axis. Environmental conditions are forecast to 
be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression 
could form well offshore the southwest coast of Mexico around 
midweek as the disturbance moves westward. 

The axis of a tropical wave extends along 122W from 04N to 18N, 
moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted south
of 12N between 119W and 124W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N79W to 10N109W to 15116W to a
low pres near 15N119W 1011 mb to 08N130W. The ITCZ continues 
from 08N130W to 09N140W. Aside from the convection related to the
tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is
from 05N to 12N between 105W and 134W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Light to gentle northwesterly winds prevail across the offshore 
waters as a broad surface ridge extends west of Baja California.
Seas range 4 to 5 ft in long period southerly swell. Moderate to
fresh southerly winds prevail in the Gulf of California in 
addition to the southern tip of Baja. Seas are 3 ft or less
prevail in the Gulf area with higher seas near the entrance due 
to the southerly swell.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will continue to extend over 
the waters W of Baja California peninsula over the next several 
days. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds will prevail through 
midweek. Locally fresh winds are possible south of Punta Eugenia 
and the tip of Baja through Mon. Light to gentle breezes will 
persist off southern Mexico through midweek. In the Gulf of 
California, moderate to fresh winds will continue through most of
the week. Fresh to strong northerly winds will develop in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight and continue through Thu night. 

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop southeast of the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec around midweek and move west-northwestward 
at 10 to 15 kt, well offshore the southern coast of Mexico. 
Environmental conditions are expected to support the development 
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by 
late week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE-E winds and seas to 8 ft are noted in the Papagayo 
region. Light winds are north of the monsoon trough with gentle 
to moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas mostly range 
5 to 8 ft with 8 to 9 ft seas near Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands.

For the forecast, fresh winds will continue to pulse across the 
Papagayo region through Tue night. Elsewhere, moderate to locally
fresh southerly flow will prevail south of 10N through the week,
with light to gentle breezes north of 10N. Cross equatorial SW 
swell is forecast to continue across the waters between Ecuador 
and the Galapagos Islands through Tue. Seas will continue to be 8
to 9 ft in this area, reaching as far north as the offshore 
waters of western Panama.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge extends across the waters north of the 
convergence zone. The pressure gradient between the ridge and 
lower pressure along the convergence zone is supporting gentle to
moderate winds north of it, with moderate to fresh winds south 
of it. Seas range 5 to 7 ft in mixed long period swell. Moderate
to fresh northerly winds are noted N of 25N between 129W and 
138W with seas up to 9 ft. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue over the
waters N of 25N and W of 130W through Mon, pushing 9 ft swell in
the area. Trade winds N of the convergence zone are expected to 
relax through Tue as a trough drifts westward across the region.
Moderate to fresh trade winds will return by midweek.

$$
ERA