000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111549 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Jul 11 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave extends along 82W north of 03N northward into the western Caribbean, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 05N and E of 88W. The axis of a tropical wave extends along 97W from 04N to 15N and is moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N and 15N between 95W and 103W. The axis of a tropical wave extends along 121W from 04N to 18N, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted south of 10N between 120W and 124W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N90W to 13N114W to a low pres near 11N118W 1010 mb to 10N129W. The ITCZ continues from 10N129W to 10N140W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N between 102W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Light to gentle northwesterly winds prevail across the offshore waters as a broad surface ridge extends west of Baja California. Seas range 4 to 5 ft in long period southerly swell. Moderate to fresh southerly winds prevail in the Gulf of California in addition to the southern tip of Baja. Seas are 3 ft or less prevail in the Gulf area with higher seas near the entrance due to the southerly swell. For the forecast, a surface ridge will continue to extend over the waters W of Baja California peninsula over the next several days. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds will prevail through midweek. Locally fresh winds are possible south of Punta Eugenia and the tip of Baja through Mon. Light to gentle breezes will persist off southern Mexico through midweek. In the Gulf of California, moderate to fresh winds will continue through most of the week. Fresh to strong northerly winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight and continue through Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE-E winds and seas to 9 ft are noted in the Papagayo region. Light winds are north of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas mostly range 5 to 8 ft with 8 to 9 ft seas near Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse across the Papagayo region through Tue night. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh southerly flow will prevail south of 10N through Fri, with light to gentle breezes north of 10N. Cross equatorial SW swell is forecast to continue across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Tue. Seas will continue to be 8 to 9 ft in this area, reaching as far north as the offshore waters of western Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends across the waters north of the convergence zone. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along the convergence zone is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of it, with moderate to fresh winds south of it. Seas range 5 to 7 ft in mixed long period swell. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted N of 25N between 129W and 138W with seas up to 9 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue over the waters N of 25N and W of 130W through Mon, pushing 9 ft swell in the area. Trade winds N of the convergence zone are expected to relax through Tue as a trough drifts westward across the region. Moderate to fresh trade winds will return by midweek. $$ ERA