000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110336 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Jul 11 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave extends along 94W north of 04N and is moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 07N to 14N between 93W and 97W. The axis of a tropical wave extends along 116W from 04N to 17N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 16N between 115W and 118W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 10N102W to a 1011 mb low pressure near 15N114W to a 1011 mb low pressure near 11N128W to 11N135W. The ITCZ extends from 11N135W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N to 14N and E of 103W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 13N between 108W to 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Light to gentle northwesterly winds prevail across the offshore waters as a broad surface ridge extends west of Baja California. Seas range 4 to 6 ft in long period southerly swell. Moderate to fresh southerly winds prevail in the Gulf of California in addition to the southern tip of Baja. Seas are 3 ft or less in most of the area with higher seas near the entrance due to the southerly swell. For the forecast, a surface ridge will continue to extend over the waters W of Baja California peninsula over the next several days. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds will prevail through the weekend. Locally fresh winds are possible south of Punta Eugenia on Sun. Light to gentle breezes will persist off southern Mexico through the weekend. In the Gulf of California, moderate to fresh winds will continue through Thu. Fresh to strong northerly winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun night and continue through Wed night. A moderate long period southerly swell will gradually subside by the end of the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE-E winds and seas to 8 ft are noted in the Papagayo region. Light winds are north of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas mostly range 5 to 8 ft with 8 to 9 ft seas near Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will continue across the Papagayo region tonight. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the region Sun through Tue. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh southerly flow will prevail south of 10N through Fri, with light to gentle breezes north of 10N. Cross equatorial SW swell is forecast to continue across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through early next week. Seas will continue to be 8 to 9 ft in this area, reaching as far north as the offshore waters of western Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends across the waters north of the convergence zone. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along the convergence zone is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of it, with moderate to fresh winds south of it. Seas range 5 to 7 ft in mixed long period swell. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted N of 27N between 127W and 137W with seas reaching 8 to 9 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue over the waters N of 25N and W of 130W through Mon, pushing 8 to 9 ft swell in the area. The ridge will erode westward this weekend as a weak trough develops west of Baja California, shifting westward into early next week. This will allow for the trades to relax by that time. Moderate to fresh trade winds will return by midweek. $$ AReinhart