000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102138 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Jul 10 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave extends along 91W north of 01N and is moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N to 13N and E of 102W. The axis of a tropical wave extends along 110W from 01N to 17N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 04N to 10N between 104W and 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 08N94W to 16N110W to low pressure near 15N114W 1010 mb to low pressure near 12N118W 1011 mb to low pressure near 11N128W 1011 mb to 08N138W. ITCZ extends from 08N138W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N to 13N and E of 102W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 14N between 104W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Light to gentle northwesterly winds dominate the offshore waters as a broad surface ridge continues to extend west of Baja California. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail in the Gulf of California in addition to the southern tip of Baja. Seas range 4 to 6 ft in long period southerly swell. In the Gulf of California, seas are 3 ft or less in most of the area with higher seas near the entrance due to the southerly swell. For the forecast, a surface ridge will continue to extend over the waters W of Baja California peninsula over the next several days. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds will prevail through the weekend. Farther south, light to gentle breezes will persist off southern Mexico through the weekend. In the northern Gulf of California, moderate to fresh winds are possible later on Sun through Wed. Fresh to strong northerly winds could develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Sun night and continue through Wed night. A moderate long period southerly swell will gradually subside by the end of the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and seas to 9 ft are noted in the Papagayo region. Light winds are north of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas mostly range 5 to 8 ft, with 8 to 9 ft seas near Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse across the Papagayo region through Sun, supporting seas to 8 ft downstream. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh southerly flow will prevail south of 10N through Fri, with light to gentle breezes north of 10N. Cross equatorial SW swell is forecast to continue across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through early next week. Seas will continue to be 8 to 9 ft in this area, reaching as far north as the offshore waters of western Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends across the waters north of the convergence zone. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along the convergence zone is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of it, with moderate to fresh winds south of it. Seas range 5 to 7 ft in mixed long period swell. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted N of 27N between 126W and 130W with seas reaching 8 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue over the waters N of 25N and W of 130W through Mon, pushing 8 to 9 ft swell in the area. The ridge will erode westward this weekend as a weak trough develops west of Baja California, shifting westward into early next week. This will allow for the trades to relax by that time. Moderate to fresh winds will return by midweek. $$ ERA