000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100314
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Jul 10 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave extends along 86W and north of 02N is 
moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate 
convection prevails in the area enhanced by the monsoon trough 
from 03N-11N and east of 98W.

The axis of a tropical wave extends along 106W from 01N to 17N, 
moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 03N 
to 15N between 105W and 108W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 09N83W 
to 08N95W to 15N109W to 11N120W to 07N138W. The ITCZ continues
from 07N138W to 06N140W. Aside from the convection described 
above, scattered moderate prevails from 08N to 11N between 110W 
and 139W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters of Mexico with
a broad surface ridge west of Baja California. Gentle to moderate
southerly winds prevail in the Gulf of California in addition to
the southern tip of Baja. Seas are mainly in the 5 to 7 ft range
in long period southerly swell. Seas are 3 ft or less in the 
Gulf of California, higher near the entrance due to the southerly
swell.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the waters W
of Baja California peninsula during the next several days. This
will give way to producing gentle to moderate NW-N winds through
the weekend. Farther south, light to gentle breezes will persist
off southern Mexico through the weekend. In the Gulf of 
California, moderate to fresh winds are possible later on Sun
through midweek over the northern half. Fresh to strong 
northerly winds could develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Sun 
night and continue through midweek. A moderate long period 
southerly swell will gradually subside through early next week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and seas to 7 ft are noted in the 
Papagayo region. Light winds are north of the monsoon trough with
gentle to moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 
in the 5 to 8 ft range. Seas reaching 8 to 9 ft are reaching 
near Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse across the 
Papagayo region through the weekend, supporting seas to 8 ft 
downstream. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh southerly flow 
will prevail south of 10N through Fri, with light to gentle 
breezes north of 10N. Cross equatorial SW swell is forecast to 
reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands late
this weekend, with seas 8 to 9 ft continuing as far north as the
offshore waters of western Panama. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge extends across the waters north of the 
convergence zone. The pressure gradient between the ridge and 
lower pressure along the convergence zone is supporting gentle to
moderate winds north of it, with moderate to fresh winds south 
of it. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range based on altimeter data 
in mixed long period swell. 

For the forecast, little change in winds and seas are forecast
through the weekend. Fresh winds could develop over the waters N
of 25N and W of 130W on Sat and continue into Mon, pushing 8 to 9
ft swell in the area. The ridge will erode westward this weekend
as a weak trough develops west of Baja California, shifting 
westward into early next week. This will allow for the trades to 
relax by that time. 

$$
AReinhart