000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091537
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jul 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave extends along 83W and north of 04N 
continuing into the SW Caribbean Sea, moving W at around 10 kt. 
Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted north of 03N
and east of 87W.

The axis of a tropical wave extends along 104W from 08N to 18N, 
moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 04N to 15N between 101W and 109W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 15N100W to low pressure
near 16N112W 1009 mb to low pressure near 09N135W 1010 mb. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N
and west of 112W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters of Mexico with
a weak and broad ridge west of Baja California. Gentle to moderate
southerly winds prevail in the Gulf of California with locally 
fresh in the northern Gulf in addition to the southern tip of 
Baja. Seas are mainly in the 5 to 7 ft range in long period 
southerly swell. Seas are 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California,
higher near the entrance due to the southerly swell.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the waters W
of Baja California peninsula during the next several days. This
will give way to producing gentle to moderate NW-N winds through
the weekend. Farther south, light to gentle breezes will persist
off southern Mexico through the weekend. In the Gulf of 
California, fresh to strong winds are possible late in the 
weekend into early next week over the northern half. Fresh to 
strong northerly winds could develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
by Sun night and continue through the week. A moderate long 
period southerly swell will gradually subside through the 
weekend. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and seas to 7 ft are noted in the 
Papagayo region. Light winds are north of the monsoon trough with
gentle to moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 
in the 5 to 8 ft range. The higher seas are reaching near Ecuador
and the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse across the 
Papagayo region through Sun, supporting seas to 8 ft downstream.
Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh southerly flow will prevail
south of 10N through Fri, with light to gentle breezes north of 
10N. Cross equatorial SW swell is forecast to reach the waters 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands during the weekend, 
building seas 8 to 9 ft as north as the offshore waters of 
western Panama. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends across the waters north of the convergence zone. 
The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along
the convergence zone is supporting gentle to moderate winds 
north of it, with moderate to fresh winds south of it. Seas are 
in the 5 to 8 ft range based on altimeter data in mixed long 
period swell. 

For the forecast, little change in winds and seas are forecast
today. Fresh winds could develop over the waters N of 25N and W 
of 130W on Sat and continue into Mon. The ridge will erode 
westward this weekend as a weak and broad trough develops west of
Baja California, shifting westward into early next week. This 
will allow for the trades to relax somewhat by early next week. 

$$
ERA