000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090338
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jul 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 81W north of 04N continuing 
into the SW Caribbean Sea, moving quickly W at around 20 kt. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 
04N to 11N between 80W and 85W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 103W north of 04N, moving W 
at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N
to 14N between 100W and 105W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N85W to 14N103W
to a 1010 mb low pressure near 16N113W to another 1010 mb low
near 10N127W to a third 1010 mb low near 09N136W. A trough 
extends from the third 1010 mb low from 09N136W to 05N138W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 
02N to 08N between 87W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted from 08N to 19N between 110W and 135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters of Mexico with
a weak and broad ridge west of Baja California. Gentle to moderate
southerly winds prevail in the Gulf of California with locally 
fresh in the northern Gulf. Seas are mainly in the 5 to 7 ft 
range in long period southerly swell. Seas are 3 ft or less in 
the Gulf of California, higher near the entrance due to the 
southerly swell.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the waters W
of Baja California peninsula during the next several days. This
will give way to producing mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds
through Sat. Farther south, light to gentle breezes will persist
off southern Mexico through the weekend. In the Gulf of
California, fresh to strong winds are possible late in the 
weekend into early next week over the northern Gulf of
California. Fresh to strong northerly winds could develop in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec by early next week. A moderate long period 
southerly swell will gradually subside through the weekend. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and seas to 7 ft are noted in the 
Papagayo region. Light winds are north of the monsoon trough with
gentle to moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 
in the 5 to 8 ft range, with the higher seas between Ecuador and
the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse across the 
Papagayo region through Sun, supporting seas to 8 ft downstream.
Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh southerly flow will prevail
south of 10N through Fri, with light to gentle breezes north of 
10N. Cross equatorial SW swell is forecast to reach the waters 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands during the weekend, 
building seas 8 to 9 ft as north as the offshore waters of 
western Panama. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends across the waters north of the convergence zone. 
The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along
the convergence zone is supporting gentle to moderate winds 
north of it, with moderate to fresh winds south of it. Seas are 
in the 5 to 7 ft range based on altimeter data in mixed long 
period swell. 

For the forecast, little change in winds and seas are forecast
for Fri. Fresh winds could develop over the water N of 25N and W
of 130W through the weekend. The ridge will erode westward this 
weekend as a weak and broad trough develops west of Baja 
California, shifting westward into early next week. This will 
allow for the trades to relax somewhat by early next week. 

$$
AReinhart