115 AXPZ20 KNHC 081939 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jul 8 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1910 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 79W north of 03N to across the Gulf of Panama and continuing into the SW Caribbean Sea, moving quickly W at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 77W and 87W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 102W/103W north of 02N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 100W and 108W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 09N78W to 08N90W to 1011 mb low pressure near 16N113W to 10N130W. A trough extends from 11N132W to 04N139W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 87W and 95W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 110W and 116W, and from 08N to 10N between 122W and 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters of Mexico with a weak and broad ridge west of Baja California. Moderate southerly winds prevail in the Gulf of California, locally fresh in the northern Gulf. Seas are mainly in the 5 to 7 ft range in long period southerly swell. Seas are 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California, higher near the entrance due to the southerly swell. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the waters W of Baja California peninsula during the next several days producing mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Farther south, light to gentle breezes will persist off southern Mexico. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds are possible late in the weekend into early next week over the northern Gulf of California and in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A moderate long period southerly swell will gradually subside through the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE-E winds and seas to 8 ft are noted in the Papagayo region. Light winds are north of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range, reaching 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse across the Papagayo region through Sun, supporting seas to 8 ft downstream, before diminishing slightly into early next week. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh southerly flow will prevail south of 10N through Fri, with light to gentle breezes north of 10N. Cross equatorial SW swell is forecast to reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands during the upcoming weekend, building seas to 8 ft as north as the offshore waters of western Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends across the waters north of the convergence zone. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along the convergence zone is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of it, with moderate to fresh winds south of it. Seas are in the 5 to 8 ft range based on altimeter data in mixed long period swell. For the forecast, little change in winds and seas are forecast through the end of the week. The ridge will erode westward this weekend as a weak and broad trough develops west of Baja California, shifting westward into early next week. This will allow for the trades to relax somewhat. $$ Lewitsky