000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081526
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Jul 8 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 101W north of 02N, moving 
west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
12N to 18N between 100W and 104W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 10N83W to 09N90W to 
14N105W to 09N130W. The ITCZ continues from 09N130W to beyond 
06N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted  
N of 04N east of 85W to the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is from 08N to 13N between 110W 
and 113W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California.
Moderate NW winds are noted off Baja California Norte, between 
the ridge and lower pressures over the SW CONUS. Moderate swell 
with seas of 7-8 ft is noted off Baja California Norte in mixed 
NW and SW swell. Gentle NW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are evident 
off Baja California Sur, except for possibly moderate to fresh 
winds funneling off Los Cabos. Moderate southerly winds are 
evident over the Gulf of California with slight seas. Light to 
gentle breezes with moderate SW swell are noted off southern 
Mexico.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the waters W
of Baja California peninsula during the next several days producing
mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Seas will gradually subside
to 3-5 ft on Fri. Farther south, light to gentle breezes and moderate
SW swell persist off southern Mexico. Looking ahead, fresh to strong
winds are possible early next week over the northern Gulf of California
and in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE-E winds and seas to 8 ft are noted in the
Papagayo region this morning. Light winds are north of the 
monsoon trough with gentle to locally moderate winds south of the
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range, reaching 8 ft 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse across the 
Papagayo region through Sat, supporting seas to 8 ft downstream, 
before diminishing slightly into early next week. Elsewhere, 
gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail south of 10N 
through Fri, with light to gentle breezes north of 10N. Cross 
equatorial SW swell is forecast to reach the waters between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands during the upcoming weekend, 
building seas to 8 ft as north as the offshore waters of western 
Panama. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends from 1024 mb high pressure centered well west of
the forecast area near 40N138W southeastward to near the Revillagigedo
Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure
and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the 
monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of 
the ITCZ and monsoon trough, with seas of 5-7 ft based on altimeter
data. Little change in wind and seas are forecast through the end
of the week.

$$
GR