000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080900
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Jul 8 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0850 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 100W north of 02N, moving 
west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
08N to 10N between 99W and 102W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N85W to 14N105W to
a 1012 mb low pressure near 12N120W to another 1010 mb low 
pressure area near 09N133W. The ITCZ continues from 09N133W to 
beyond 09N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection 
north of 04N east of 83W to the coast of Colombia. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 08N to 10N between 94W to 96W, from
99W to 102W, and from 110W and 114W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure centered well west of
the area near 43N140W southeastward to Socorro Island. Moderate 
to fresh NW winds are noted off Baja California Norte, between 
the ridge and 1000 mb low pressure centered over the lower 
Colorado Valley north of Yuma, Arizona. Moderate swell is noted 
off Baja California Norte in mixed NW and SW swell. Gentle NW 
winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are evident off Baja California Sur, 
except for possibly moderate to fresh winds funneling off Los 
Cabos. Moderate southerly winds are evident over the Gulf of 
California with slight seas. Light to gentle breezes with 
moderate SW swell are noted off southern Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh NW winds are ongoing off Baja California
Norte between low pressure over the northern Gulf of California 
and higher pressure farther west. Along with mixed swell these 
winds are supporting seas to 7 ft north of Punta Eugenia. Winds 
and seas will diminish through Sun as the low pressure weakens. 
Farther south, light to gentle breezes and moderate SW swell 
persist off southern Mexico. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds
are possible early next week over the northern Gulf of 
California and in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light winds are noted north of the monsoon trough with gentle to
locally moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in 
the 5-7 ft range, reaching 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos
Islands.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse across the 
Papagayo region through Sat, supporting seas to 8 ft downstream, 
before diminishing slightly into early next week. Elsewhere, 
gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail south of 10N 
through Fri, with light to gentle breezes north of 10N. Cross 
equatorial SW swell is forecast to reach the waters between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands during the upcoming weekend, 
building seas to 8 ft as north as the offshore waters of western 
Panama. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Several recent altimeter satellite passes indicated seas to 8 
ft mainly south of 10N between 100W and 125W. This is due mostly
to cross-equatorial SW swell, but also moderate SE to S winds.
Farther north, primarily NW swell of 7 to 8 ft is noted  
Elsewhere, high pressure prevails north of 20N. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is 
supporting gentle to moderate winds north of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough, with seas of 5-6 ft. 

Little change in wind and seas are forecast through the end of 
the week.

$$
Christensen