000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080258 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jul 8 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0250 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 98W north of 02N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 96W and 98W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 12N100W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 10N119W to another 1010 mb low pressure area near 10N133W. The ITCZ continues from 09N133W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection north of 04N east of 82W to the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is evident within 75 nm south of the monsoon trough between 100W and 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure centered well west of the area near 43N140W southeastward to Socorro Island. Moderate to fresh NW winds are noted off Baja California Norte this evening, between the ridge and 1001 mb low pressure centered over the lower Colorado Valley north of Yuma, Arizona. Moderate swell is noted off Baja California Norte in mixed NW and SW swell. Gentle NW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are evident off Baja California Sur, except for possibly moderate to fresh winds funneling off Los Cabos. Moderate southerly winds are evident over the Gulf of California with slight seas. Light to gentle breezes with moderate SW swell are noted off southern Mexico. For the forecast, the deep low pressure over the lower Colorado River valley will support brief moderate to fresh southerly winds across the northern Gulf of California overnight. Meanwhile, mix swell and fresh NW winds are supporting seas to 8 ft off Baja California Norte. Winds and seas will diminish through Sun. Farther south, light to gentle breezes and moderate SW swell persist off southern Mexico. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds are possible early next week over the northern Gulf of California and in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light winds are noted north of the monsoon trough with gentle to locally moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range, reaching 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse across the Papagayo region through Sat, supporting seas to 8 ft downstream, before diminishing slightly into early next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail south of 10N through Fri, with light to gentle breezes north of 10N. Cross equatorial SW swell is forecast to reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands during the upcoming weekend, building seas to 8 ft as north as the offshore waters of western Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails north of 20N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, with seas of 5-6 ft. Earlier scatterometer data show moderate to locally fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon trough, particularly between 105W and 120W. SE swell is maintaining an area of 8 ft seas south of the Equator west of 130W. Little change in wind and seas are forecast through the end of the week. $$ Christensen