000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072116
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Jul 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 97W north of 02N, moving 
west around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 10N to 15N between 95W and 100W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure located
over northern Colombia near 09N76W to 09N90W to 12N105W to a 1011
mb low pressure near 09N119W to 09N131W. The ITCZ continues from
09N131W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 04N to 07N E of 79W to the coast of Colombia, from
09N to 13N between 90W and 92W, from 09N to 13N between 100W and
110W and from 05N to 11N between 110W and 122W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Seas are in the 
4 to 6 ft range in mixed long period swell, except 6 to 8 ft N of
Punta Eugenia. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted over
the Gulf of California with seas generally of 1-3 ft. Light to 
gentle winds with seas in the 4 to 5 ft range prevail elsewhere 
over the open waters off Mexico.

For the forecast, winds will briefly increase to 15-20 kt across
the northern Gulf of California tonight with building seas of 
3-5 ft. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the offshore 
waters off Baja California, with light to gentle winds dominating
the remainder of the offshore waters through Fri. NW swell will 
build seas to 8-9 ft off Baja California Norte briefly tonight 
into early Thursday morning. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light winds are noted north of the monsoon trough with gentle to
locally moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in 
the 5-7 ft range, reaching 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos
Islands.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades across the SW Caribbean
Sea will support fresh to strong winds in the Papagayo region 
beginning tonight. Seas are forecast to build to 8 ft downstream 
of the Gulf of Papagayo to about 91W by Fri. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate southerly flow will prevail south of 10N through Fri, 
with light to gentle breezes north of 10N. Cross equatorial SW 
swell, with periods in the 16-18 second range, is forecast to 
reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands during
the upcoming weekend, building seas to 8 ft as north as the 
offshore waters of western Panama.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the northern forecast waters. The 
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon 
trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of the ITCZ 
and monsoon trough, with seas of 5-6 ft. Recent scatterometer
data show moderate to locally fresh southerly winds south of the
monsoon trough, particularly between 108W and 121W. SE swell is  
maintaining an area of 8 ft seas over the far southern waters 
west of 130W. Little change in wind and seas are forecast through
the end of the week.

$$
GR