000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071512 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jul 7 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 96W north of 02N, moving west around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 94W and 101W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia near 09N76W to 09N90W to 12N105W to a 1011 mb low pressure near 09N119W to 09N131W. The ITCZ continues from 09N131W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N E of 81W to the coast of Colombia, from 08N to 13N between 88W and 91W, from 10N to 13N between 104W and 110Wn and from 05N to 10N between 112W and 122W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient continues to support gentle to moderate NW-N winds west of the Baja California peninsula, with locally fresh winds off Baja California Norte. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range in mixed long period swell. Light to gentle southerly winds are noted over the Gulf of California with seas of 1-3 ft. Light to gentle winds with seas in the 4 to 5 ft range prevail elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the offshore waters off Baja California, with light to gentle winds dominating the remainder of the offshore waters through Fri. Winds will diminish slightly west of Baja California Thu. NW swell will build seas to 8-9 ft off Baja California Norte briefly tonight into early Thursday morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light winds are noted north of the monsoon trough with gentle to locally moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range, reaching 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail south of 10N through midweek, with light to gentle breezes north of 10N. Gap winds will freshen over the Gulf of Papagayo tonight. SW swell will prevail over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos islands through the remainder of the week. Another long period SW swell event is forecast to reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands during the upcoming weekend, building seas to 8 ft as north as the offshore waters of western Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails over the northern waters. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, with seas of 5-6 ft. Gentle to moderate southerly flow is noted south of the monsoon trough, with moderate SE flow south of the ITCZ. Southerly swell has crossed the equator, maintaining seas to near 8 ft over the far southern waters west of 130W. Little change in wind and seas are forecast through the end of the week. $$ GR