000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050820
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jul 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 86/87W north of 02N, moving 
west around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted north of 04N between 84W and 90W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 101W north of 02N into 
southwest Mexico, moving west at around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 11N 
between 100W and 102W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 10N90W to 13N101W to 
09N118W. The ITCZ continues from 09N118W to 09N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted north of 04N between
84W and 90W. Scattered moderate comvection is noted from 09N to 
11N between 100W and 102W, and from 05N to 08N between 120W and 
140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient supports gentle to moderate NW-N winds 
west of the Baja California peninsula. Seas are in the 5 to 6 ft
range in mixed long period swell. Gentle to moderate southerly 
winds are noted over the Gulf of California with seas of 2-3 ft. 
Light to gentle winds with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range prevail 
elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the
offshore waters off Baja California, with light to gentle winds 
dominating the remainder of the offshore waters through much of 
this week. NW swell will build seas off Baja California Norte by 
the middle of the week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light winds are noted north of the monsoon trough with gentle to
locally moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in 
the 5-7 ft range. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail
south of 10N through midweek, with light to gentle breezes north
of 10N. Gap winds will freshen over the Gulf of Papagayo 
midweek. Moderate SW swell will persist across the region, 
building slightly in the Ecuadorian waters by midweek.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the northern waters. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds
north of the ITCZ to 15N and west of 130W. Gentle to locally 
moderate trade winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail elsewhere 
north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Gentle to moderate 
southerly flow is noted south of the monsoon trough, with 
moderate SE flow south of the ITCZ. Southerly swell has crossed 
the equator, maintaining seas to near 8 ft over the far southern 
waters west of 120W. Little change in wind and seas are forecast 
through midweek.

$$
AL